The Eve of Inevitability

Super Tuesday is upon us and each side of the election process, Republican and Democrat, is nearing the point of inevitability. Trump only needs to do moderately well tomorrow to acquire the last bit of momentum needed toward the Republican nomination. Hillary Clinton, after a landslide victory in South Carolina on Saturday, is ready to put down the Socialist threat and claim the democratic throne.

How did these elevations occur? A lot of people doubted one or the other possibility, even after early victories by these two contenders for the US Presidency.

Trump's Path to Ascendancy

Naysayers in the Republican party doubted, and liberals feared, Trump's chances from the very beginning. That he had a strong and devoted following was never contested. However, he had what was an apparently firm ceiling of 30-35% support among likely voters. Surely, thought his legion opponents, the party would eventually coalesce behind an establishment candidate and send this reality-TV star packing.

But this did not happen. And, really, by the time that this need to stop Trump became truly obvious, there were not many establishment candidates left. After the Iowa caucus, people looked to Jeb Bush and his uninspired campaign to stop the push for an outsider. But Jeb's number's hadn't left single digit support since the previous fall. For all the money that he had spent (over $100 million), Jeb had generated very little support. If you were one of Jeb's supporters before he left the race last week, you should feel flattered. He probably spent thousands of dollars just on you.

Besides Jeb. there was only Rubio, the junior senator from Florida. Cruz, Carson and Kasich could hardly be called establishment candidates and they each had a non-trivial portion of the republican vote. Cruz had even won Iowa, though there remain questions about the accuracy of the results from that caucus.

The establishment never had a chance. The truth is that there are not and never were going to be enough votes for any of the establishment candidates. The people supporting Cruz, Kasich and Carson were themselves troubling signs of cracks in the GOP foundation. Trump's ascendancy is due to the flood pouring in through those cracks.

High Hillary

For a while, it looked like Sanders really had some momentum. Even a cynical old bastard like me, who would never vote for a man who backed down so cowardly in the face of an interrupting BLM protest, was moved by his America campaign ad.

There was one major problem with the ad. It was super-white. I noticed this right away but I assumed that Clinton would have a hard time motivating black voters this time around. She did not. She certainly is not generating Obama levels of black voter participation but she is getting more than enough apparently. And this voting bloc was not enthused about Sanders' message. Like other democratic voting blocs, they wanted to know what politicians are going to give them specifically and Sanders' union background and free college offer was not considered relevant enough to black Americans, if the statements of leaders like John Lewis are representative.

So we head into Super Tuesday with several candidates holding on to slim hopes for a last-minute surprise. However, Trump and Clinton appear to be riding juggernauts toward a November showdown.

Republican Herd Stubbornly Refuses to Be Culled

As the contest in South Carolina approaches, I am amazed by the number of republican candidates that still hold on to some shred of an idea that they may pull this thing off and win the nomination. Of course, I admire their tenacity and respect the fact that they have some reason to cling to hope. This has been a season of unexpected events.

Not many people took the candidacy of Donald Trump very seriously when this campaign season began a year ago. No one took Bernie Sanders seriously then either but he has also made his potential for winning the Democratic candidacy very obvious, with unexpectedly strong support from more than just the youth vote. A number of lesser republican candidates have similarly experienced support that even they may not have believed possible.

Who would have expected that Jeb Bush would be fighting just to stay in contention? That Chris Christie and Rick Perry would already be out of the race after experiencing such national popularity as vocal and successful republican executives? Scott Walker was a major contender for this election a year ago and now hardly anyone remembers that he was in the race.

Instead, we have a junior Senator from Florida, Marco Rubio, contending for the candidacy with much more support than Jeb. We also have a Texan Senator, Ted Cruz, despised by apparently all of his colleagues, also challenging the unlikely billionaire front-runner, Donald Trump. Meanwhile, everyone is wondering if a neophyte neurosurgeon, Ben Carson, will make a comeback and regain his prior strong support for the nomination.

Given this background, you can't blame anyone for thinking that they might win. Nevertheless, I still blame George Pataki. Thankfully, he finally retired his run for the nomination several weeks ago.

With less than a week until the South Carolina decision, Trump remains in the lead. In fact, has increased his support, much to the chagrin of the media which still likes to trumpet headlines about the Donald's nonexistent losses. Immediately after the last debate, which media pundits claimed was a huge loss for Trump, they ran headlines saying that he had suffered terrible losses. Nevertheless, polls taken the following day showed the billionaire even more solidly in the lead.

On This Wintry Iowa Caucus Eve

'Twas the night before caucus, and all through the House (of Representatives),
Not a politician was stirring, not even to grouse.
Overcome with fear of status quo nightmare,
They hoped that some solution would soon be there.

Hope is the key term tonight. Both the democratic and republican establishments are a little stunned right now. For months, they have waited for the initial excitement traditionally given to political newcomers to wear off and allow the tried-and-true insiders to take the lead. They got their wish with Ben Carson, whose foibles and inadequacies were exposed in the long, hard grind from last summer to the Iowa present.

But this return to the mean just hasn't happened with Trump and with Sanders. Trump has held onto a lead which he only briefly shared with Ben Carson. Sanders has actually climbed up from decent also-ran numbers to a shockingly competitive level of interest among likely Iowa voters. In New Hampshire, he leads.

Heads are spinning in Washington and elsewhere. To tell the truth, even I am surprised. I have referenced Jeb's money on several occasions with the open belief that his treasure chest would carry him through to the end. Only in my most secret nihilist dreams did I think that one of these two upstarts would cause some interesting chaos in primary season. I never expected to have both of them pissing off the nancy boys in their respective parties.

Still, it's not over till the fat lady sings. In question are not just the sincerity of Trump supporters to to turn out and vote on Monday night, but a possible snow storm will complicate matters even more. Candidates like Cruz have die hard supporters that will show no matter what and Clinton has an establishment network ready to work the party machinery and clinch the nomination for her.

A lot is at stake tomorrow night in Iowa. Will we have revolution or will we succumb to traditional party politics?

The Iowa Caucus Approacheth!

Since the beginning, this blog has focused on the numbers more than the quality of the candidates. Hopefully, that can begin to change as hordes of candidates drop out of the race.

For the democrats, the nature of the coming battle is essentially decided.There is the status quo candidate in Hillary Clinton and the radical left candidate in Bernie Sanders. Personally, I have despised Sanders since he played pussy to the BLM protesters back in August. However, I am glad that he is on stage because I have long felt that the hard left of the Democratic Party has been ignored.

Both parties today are really amalgams of groups which have little in common. Clinton represents the status quo party but Sanders represents the significant segment of society that thinks that America is long overdue for socialist reforms. In fact, I have a crush on him simply because some of what he says resembles my dreams when I was a young democrat who still believed that the party represented blue-collar workers and their families. However, walking away from pond scum that should have been sent packing at that meeting in August soured whatever lingering sympathy I had for him. I am not interested in an America in which rude BLM protesters have any say.

On the republican side, the equation is only starting to become clear. While some are already calling for a Trump fait accompli, I am more cautious and, as always, remember the power of money, of which Bush has a lot.

Nevertheless, things have become more clear. At the very least, that fucking zombie candidate George Pataki has dropped out. His continuing candidacy was a sign that the republican party was still playing around and not getting serious about the election. The number of real republican candidates can now be counted on one hand:

• Donald Trump. Liberals long discounted the seriousness of his campaign because they are unable to imagine a world in which people do not agree with their views on some visceral level. In the minds of liberals, conservatives would agree with them if only they would engage in dialogue. Trump's ongoing popularity may finally be beginning to show libs that some Americans are simply out to get them, with no apologies.
• Ted Cruz. Long seen as an unofficial ally of Trump's, Cruz is starting to distinguish himself from the billionaire by courting evangelicals. He is increasingly looking like the hard-right Christian candidate, though his eligibility to be POTUS is even more in question than Obama's.
• Ben Carson. His star is definitely falling and I do him a favor just including him on this list. The era of white-guilt voting is over. Carson will not be the GOP candidate unless somebody literally kills three or four other candidates.
• Marco Rubio. The press tried hard to give the candidacy to this young Latino months ago but his appeal has waned. He is not the Christian candidate and he is not the white-anger candidate. In the GOP today, this means - no votes for you!
• Chris Christie. I am not a fan but but I commend him for sticking it out, fighting his way up from the kiddie table debates to be included in the final selection. He actually has more merit than many candidates in that he has held executive office and acted as a national figure for years now.

Notice that I forgot Jeb Bush? Okay, I admit that this was intentional. I do not want another member of the ruling Clinton-Bush-Obama dynasty to win but I actually think that his chances are decent. Money talks and Bush can hang in there for months to come. It does not matter if he loses Iowa and New Hampshire. He has the cash to wait in the wings and exploit any chaos in the electoral process to his own advantage.

GOP Candidates Slogging Their Way Into Winter

As much of the Midwest, a hotbed for Republican politics, was snowed in or iced over this last week, the slightly less numerous candidates for the GOP presidential nomination reached the end of the beginning in their election campaigns. Just two months to go until the Iowa caucus voices America's first decision with regard to each candidate's legitimacy.

There are not quite so many of them now and the dynamics have changed somewhat. Donald Trump is still a leader among them but his primary rival of just a few weeks ago, Ben Carson, has seen his star decline a little. Ted Cruz and Marco Rubio have gained significant support in the polls. Jeb Bush has remained hobbled with single-digit poll numbers while some others, such as Bobby Jindal, have given up in the face of nearly non-existent support. Unbelievably, George Fucking Pataki is still officially in this race.

Here are the candidates that remain believably in this race. While Jeb Bush's numbers suggest he should possibly bow out, I will continue to include him. As I have stated before, his money can keep him in this race while he waits for one disaster or another to overtake his less-milquetoast competitors so that his blandness can finally shine.

1. Donald Trump continues to lead the pack with percentage of support somewhere in the mid-twenties. It depends on where and when you poll. Some polls have shown him briefly as high as the low 40s but these gains seem to be ephemeral. Furthermore, the Donald continues to say things that alienate, at least for a time, his less entrenched supporters. For example, he has come out in support of waterboarding and apparently made fun of a handicapped reporter's disabilities during a press conference.
2. Ben Carson has been brought down a few notches, particularly as a result of various statements he has made with regard to religious topics. He has said openly that Muslims should be prevented form holding the Presidency and he was ridiculed for speculating that the pyramids of Egypt were for holding grain rather than the corpses of deceased Pharaohs. In general, someone has made a point of degrading Carson's intelligence. I suspect that this was Trump, who has frequently bullied people with regard to their intelligence. Just look at the way that he hounded Perry out of the race.
3. Marco Rubio has certainly made a run for Golden Boy if not for the presidency. Some competent work in the debates has brought the spotlight to this young senator for Florida. In addition, his willingness to take on his former mentor, Jeb Bush, has earned him kudos from some voters.
4. It has been said in some circles that Trump is really running interference for Ted Cruz. The idea, apparently, is that Trump will eventually drop out and his supporters will have nowhere else to go but the Cruz camp. By then, Rand Paul and other potential recipients of Trumps support will have all dropped out. Whether or not such a conspiracy exists, things may play out that way. Cruz rivals Rubio now for 3rd place.

There is still a pack of others but there viability is lessening. Carly Fiorina has not made any headlines recently. Jeb Bush is still a gelding among stallions at this point. Chris Christie has managed to stir the pot with regard to certain statements made by Donald Trump but he has repeatedly replied that he is getting sick of being asked about Trump. He should be wary of getting what he wished for. The Donald is the only issue that gets him in the news.

Let Their Numbers Be Diminished: The GOP Herd Thins

Ignore the man on the far right. Everyone else does.

The first primary is still months a way but a reduction in the numbers of GOP candidates seems overdue. I am not chiming in with Trump to harass underdogs into dropping out. According to the Donald, anybody with less than 1% of the average polling should have already withdrawn. However, it sure seems like some of the men running for office should have taken the hint a while ago.


Who's Out

If you have been paying attention at all, you probably know that the Republican field of presidential candidates was pretty large this time around. Technically, it is always large as there are scores of people running obscure campaigns every time an election rolls around. This time, though, there were about 17 or 18 with recognizable faces and some chance of actually being nominated to the official candidacy of the Republican Party.

Since that inauspicious start, there have been a handful of dropouts and or demotions. Rick Perry was the first major name to drop out. His end was particularly surprising because he made a stronger run in 2012 and seemed to have put much more effort into the race this time around. He even left his job as governor of Texas in January 2015, staking everything on this run.

Scott Walker dropped out a few weeks ago. His early departure was also surprising, considering his background as conservative stalwart and successful office holder.

What is much more surprising, though, is the identities of some candidates who continue to stagger along with absolutely no chance of winning. I mean, for the love of Pete, why in the fuck is George Pataki still in this race? He is like that annoying guy who shows up uninvited to your party and just never goes home.

Nevertheless, Pataki has been shown the door, even if he has not made any movement in that direction. The fourth GOP debate has been scheduled and Pataki, along with Lindsey Graham, is scheduled neither to appear on the main stage nor at the kiddie table where the second-string waits for an injury on the field to let their stars shine, These two have not officially recused themselves ( I am not even sure that Pataki is really alive. He may be a drone) but we can finally count them out and focus on the real contenders now.

Who's In

The big kids' table will now host just eight primary candidates.

• Donald Trump. Of course, He still has about a quarter of the GOP electorate unwaveringly behind him and garners even more support on specific questions when it comes to who people trust with regard to economic or foreign policy issues.
• Ben Carson. He was actually leading the Donald in polls out of Iowa just a week ago. Since then, though, there has been a barrage of attacks on his past and his presentation of himself. My gut instinct was to suspect the liberal media of going after a successful black man who was not in their camp. Now that I have given it more thought, though, I have to wonder if Trump is not behind these leaks and attacks.
• Carly Fiorina. She's still running, even if the harridans on the View think she is ugly.
• Ted Cruz. He resonated with likely voters at the last debate and has secured a spot at this table until the primaries come, in my opinion.
• Marco Rubio. The young senator from Florida is surging after smacking Jeb Bush around at the last debate. I think we can also expect Rubio to stay among the leaders until the primaries really begin to cull the GOP numbers.
• Rand Paul. This was a surprise. I have been daily waiting for him to throw in the towel but he has been given another prime time opportunity. It may be his last but, for the meantime, he is among the leaders.
• Jeb Bush. His campaign is the very definition of fizzle but he has great big boatloads of money. No one should discount the staying power of cash, I really think that he is vulnerable this time around, though, and probably needs to make a good showing if he wants to be included in the next gathering of the cool kids.
• John Kasich. Fucking unbelievable. I had even forgotten that he was running. Not sure how this GOP zombie secured a place among the frontrunners.

Who's on the Way Out

There will be just four candidates at the early debate for also-rans.

• Bobby Jindal. Yeah, I don't get how he is still invited to anything. I have nothing against the man politically or personally but his campaign makes Jeb Bush's campaign look energetic and virile.
• Rick Santorum. He must still be getting credit for pulling off a surprise win in Iowa some years ago.
• Mike Huckabee. He seems like a friendly guy but he has made the most effete run for the presidency since Fred Thompson.
• Chris Christie. His demotion surprised me. I am not a fan but he has sounded pretty good compared to the non-presences of guys like Kasich. If anyone returns from the kiddie table to the front of the pack, it will be Christie.

So the running has been reduced to twelve. I am expecting a few resignations in the wake of this next debate. It will be interesting to see who capitulates and who continues forward with stubborn obstinacy (I'm talking to you, Pataki!).

Jeb Bush Breaks Into Double Digits

The latest polls show that Jeb Bush is hanging in there. While not skyrocketing to the top of the polls, he has acquired a respectable 10% of the vote as less well-financed competition has stepped out of the race. As I said in a previous post, candidates like Jeb can afford to wait for Donald Trump to either sabotage himself or simply lose the excitement initially garnered by a new face.

In my opinion, looks too much like his mother.

I do not think that Bush's message resonates with any more voters than before. He is simply benefiting from the thinning of the ranks that has occurred and from the thinning that is about to occur. By this, I mean that many voters are starting to see how continuing to hold their vote for Jindal, Graham or Huckabee is just pointless and they are gravitating to whomever they think has a similar message and a better chance. Jeb is getting some sloppy seconds, in other words.

Nevertheless, do not think for a minute that I count him out. He was the crown prince not long ago and has simply been overshadowed for a moment by an upstart. His background and his finances can still see him through to the end, no matter how much Trump's more fervent followers would like to see him fail. I would not be surprised to see him win this thing next summer.

In fact, as much as I enjoy the chaos started by Donald Trump, I would be more surprised if that eccentric billionaire won than I would be by Bush;s eventual victory. In the end, I don't see the establishment allowing the status quo to be overturned.

Is Donald Trump Sinking His Own Ship?

Recently, Donald Trump has tried his hardest to sabotage himself in the GOP race for the presidency. He has done this before with comments about Megyn Kelly and others but with little or no impact on his poll numbers. It remains to be seen how his latest efforts will hurt his chances or not.

Trump vs Carson

A few days ago, Ben Carson was asked to distinguish himself from Donald Trump. He responded with a remark that referenced matters of faith. He seemed to suggest that Trump's religiosity was insincere, since citing a favorite passage from the Bible would be too personal. This was not a very targeted attack and it takes a little effort to even see it as a disparaging remark at all.

That did not stop Trump from going on the attack as soon as he learned about it. He immediately referenced Carson's own faith history and shed doubt on the idea that he has been a man of faith all his life.

“All of a sudden he's becoming this man of faith," Trump snorted. The billionaire candidate also called Carson, who is renowned for neurosurgery, an "okay doctor." That is what we called damning with faint praise. Trump definitely shows here how his aggressiveness has served him in the world of business.

Carson, to his credit, heard about the dust up and apologized if it had seemed his intent to cause insult. I have not heard back on whether Trump responded in any way.

Trump vs Fiorina

"Look at that face!" Trump huffed as he spoke with a Rolling Stone interviewer and pointed to Carly Fiorina, who had just appeared on a nearby TV screen. "Would anyone vote for that?"

The cry over this one involves sexism but I think, if I may interject my own sexist viewpoint here, that this is really all about the delicacy women have with regard to their features. Had he said this about Jeb Bush, everyone would have laughed. But, as Trump immediately pointed out after letting another gaffe slip through his lips, you're not supposed to say bad things about women. You especially should not call them ugly.

The funny thing here is that all the people who are upset have probably made many a joke or laughed at many a joke about Trump's hair. But a chick's face is off limits, right?

How it Hurts

Everyone, even most republicans, think that it is funny to make a Jeb Bush joke or laugh at Lindsey Graham's attempt at the presidency. However, Carson and Fiorina belong to special groups which political correctness does not allow to be insulted in today's world: minorities and women.

I was initially surprised when I heard that Trump had gone after Carson. Carson's race generally leaves him immune to many of the most vile weapons available in a politician's arsenal. I was also curious to hear exactly how Trump had bungled this one.

But the details are quite boring. He never really insulted Carson. He made a quite probable reference to Carson's faith being a rather recent invention. Nor did he say that Carson was a lousy doctor. Plenty of people would love to be "okay doctors" in this world. It is only that he undermined the public idea that Carson was brilliant that caused Trump trouble here.

Trump also attacked a woman but this is not a first for him and it has not hurt his numbers before. Plenty of women support Trump and have publicly stated that they forgive him these faults because of other more important traits.

Does It Matter?

I think that this only looks like a major confrontation from the headlines. It is pretty obvious, after you read the first few articles about it all, that the media is trying to dig up a story here.

In the end, this is really good for Trump. I mentioned in a  previous article that the Donald's biggest enemy right now is this slow period between now and the first primary. The media continues to make headlines for him at no cost to his treasure chest.

Clear and Present Danger for Donald Trump

If you are a fan of Donald Trump, then it might be easy right now to get carried away with enthusiasm and assume that he cannot be stopped. After all, Jeb Bush is basically imploding with omega male misery and the myriad other contenders are, for the most part, swirling and spinning in the wake of Trump's speedboat.

The only real threat appears to be Ben Carson. But ask yourself, are the other candidates trying to imitate Carson to make up the difference or are they imitating Trump? GOP candidates are trying to fire up the rhetoric and appear as outspoken as the Donald now but this is a pathetic effort doomed to failure. Even the dimmest bulb in the room sees through this effort and, worse, they are going to turn off many of their more traditional supporters.

However, if you have been through a few political cycles, you can see a serious but ambiguous threat to Trump's continued popularity.

Time Destroys All Things

Trump towers someday. But maybe not in 2016!

Just think, the Iowa caucus and the New Hampshire primary are still four months away. Once those events occur, leading candidates have headlines to help carry their efforts to the next round of primaries. You can either count on winning a primary or doing better than expected to generate some free publicity and keep people interested.

But we are not in primary season. If you want to be noticed and gather support, you need to create your own stories. Now, so far Trump has had little difficulty doing this. The press has been giving him free publicity for several weeks but he was still considered a sideshow just a couple months ago. Now he has to slog through four months of quiet time.

The other candidates, even those with just a few percentage points of support, can still come back if they manage to hold on. Just like stocks usually bounce back from lows and reward investors who hold on to them, candidates can recover when emotional support for a frontrunner fades away as time passes and nothing new happens. That support has to go somewhere and it can trickle down to these stragglers and make some headlines for them.

I am not saying that Trump cannot do it, only that he has a different game ahead of him now. He has garnered a lot of press and support for being outspoken. Over four months, that will get old. He will probably have to begin producing policies and plans and compete with these others in their own games.

Clinging to a Bush

Jeb Bush has a lot of money. He can hold on. He might begin to look very good to people who tire of Trump's bluster and seek comfort in traditional candidates.  Other GOP candidates may share the same hope. Ben Carson can hope to appear as the safe and sensible alternative to "the crazies," as John McCain referred to the earliest supporters of Trump over a month ago.

What's Wrong with Jeb Bush?

Exactly what is wrong with Jeb Bush? He is doing pretty poorly against two outsiders yet he could easily have been seen as the crown prince of the GOP given his heritage and background. The answer to the question depends on which party opines on the matter. The GOP answer is really the most important right now but it is always useful to see infighting through an outsider's eyes.

Democrats See Jeb Bush and Think...

Liberal boogeymen - Woohoo! Let's start a war and revoke abortion rights!

Without question, most libs look at Jeb and see George W. Whether that identification is justified or not is neither here nor there. Even if, after thinking about it for a while, they can begin to see differences, it does not matter. Liberals are allergic to GW Bush like they had nut allergies and he was a Payday bar. Jeb may have less nuts but he is still toxic death to them.

And it doesn't help Jeb that he has done things such as cross the racial boundary with his wife or learned Spanish. That doesn't make them like him any more. Jeb has fallen for the liberal fallacy that conciliating people makes them more likely to like you. This is a classic beta male mistake.

Conciliating people actually makes them more likely to despise you. The only way to win liberals' respect is to be tough with them. This is why Trump will end up garnering much more respect from his enemies if he wins the nomination. Libs are definitely not scared of Jeb. That's his real problem.

Republicans See Jeb and Think...

Where's the Beav?

I do not want to malign all conservatives but the simple fact is that many of them are not ready for this picture.

It's not a matter necessarily of racism. I do not like the way that people now whip out the racist accusation every time someone isn't comfortable with the immediate liquification of all races into one mildly brown guy with slightly slanted eyes. I have fathered a multiracial family but I do not expect everyone to want to follow in my footsteps. I like the fact that there are Duggar families sharing the country with me. Call me open-minded.

Nevertheless, I am sure that a significant segment of the population backing Trump is just plain uncomfortable when they look at this picture. Jeb Bush has strayed. Possibly worse, he even converted to Catholicism.

Of course, I am sure that the committee handling Jeb's entire life in order to lead him to the presidency had this figured out. They probably weren't planning on such a tough fight from the extreme right wing of the party. Didn't we already cow these people? Aren't they supposed to be distracted by professional wrestling? What went wrong?

The planners were probably thinking about the general election when Jeb could present a soft, conservative identity that would be immune to the racist card that Obama played, though subtly, on McCain. Libs won't be able to suggest that this is just an old, white guy with no clue about race. Up against any of the present Dem contenders, he would appear positively cosmopolitan.

The republicans uniting under the Trump banner also see weakness in Jeb. Trump said on a TV interview that Jeb is low-energy but immediately said that this is OK. But he doesn't really think that this is okay and neither do his followers. They want a man in charge and Jeb is too much the affable office manager. They prefer a hard-charging tycoon.

The biggest thing wrong with Jeb Bush is his timing. He should have run in 2000 and he should have run in 2012. Without Trump in this race, I think that the race would have been really to see who would be his running mate. Trump has opened it up so much that Ben Carson is vying for first place in some polls.

That is why I like Trump more than anything. He has kicked in the door and let in some fresh air. Too bad for Jeb Bush that the sudden breeze upset his paperwork.

The Competition: Republicans

There is probably more competition, in terms of quantity anyway, for the office of President of the United States than anytime before in my memory. I remember the Democratic queue being laughably long in 1988 but the republican turnout this year is ridiculously huge. I have heard the number 17 in the press. Let's see if I can actually dig up these individuals from the dogpile.

I will divide the competition into two categories, if only for the sake of breaking up the text. More elaborate reviews of each candidate will follow as time permits and as candidates gain legitimacy. I'm not going to devote significant time to men like Lindsey Graham or Rick Santorum until they pick up some real numbers.

Contenders

• Donald Trump - Enough said so far. Let's look at the others.
• Ben Carson - Retired neurosurgeon notable for a few reasons in my mind: he is the only other candidate to receive double-digit support in current polls, he is more cerebral than the other candidates and he is black. That last point may seem blunt but if you don't think that race is a factor in modern politics then you are either disingenuous or stupid. I won't say that you are both because stupid people are incapable of being disingenuous.
• Jeb Bush - Former governor of Florida and a member of the Bush clan. He was the one expected to run for the office back in 2000 but the option went to the crown prince of the clan, GW Bush. Notable for his marriage to a Latin American woman, conversion to Catholicism and a low-key approach to confrontations.
• Marco Rubio - Junior senator from Florida. He is comparatively young (44) and of Latin background. This may be crucial in the long run if the republicans want more of the Latino vote. I'll explain why the concept of a Latino vote is ridiculous later.
• Ted Cruz - Another young (44) Latino senator, this one from Texas. He is associated with the Tea Party.
• Scott Walker - Fairly young (47) governor of Wisconsin. Notable for youth and executive experience as a governor. He is anti-abortion, even in cases of rape or incest.
• Carly Fiorina - Left out of the debate of the top ten candidates a few weeks ago, Fiorina has fought her way into the inner circle, mostly due to an off-the-cuff speech given outside that forum. She has much business experience but has never won political office.
• John Kasich - A career politician, he first gained office in the Ohio Senate in 1978 at age 26. He has been governor of that state since 2010.
• Chris Christie - Governor of New Jersey since 2010, he is notable for his tough stances on certain issues but also for working closely with President Obama after Hurricane Sandy devastated his state. In addition, his morbid obesity was allegedly recognized as a major bar keeping him from higher office. Somewhere along the way, he has lost some weight and people do not mention the issue. 

Dark Horses

The placement of some of the following in this category is debatable and they could easily be interchanged with some of the above. It will take some time to eliminate the hopeless cases and form a better idea of the republican field before January 2016, when the first primaries occur.

• Rand Paul - Son of Congressman Ron Paul and Senator from Kentucky. He is the darling of the libertarian fringe of the republican party.
• Mike Huckabee - Southern Baptist minister and former governor of Arkansas. He is notable for his strong evangelical views and his Fox TV show the Huckabee Report, which he abandoned in January 2015 to run for President.
• Rick Perry - He took over governorship of Texas after GW Bush won the presidency in 2000. He ran for POTUS in 2012 but lost the nomination to Mitt Romney. Trump may have given his failing candidacy a fatal blow when he made repeated references to Perry's allegedly low IQ.
• George Pataki - Former governor of New York and soon-to-be former candidate for the republican nomination.
• Bobby Jindal - Governor of Louisiana and former US congressman. He is just 44 years old, known for his conversion to Catholicism and strong moral stances.
• Rick Santorum - Some guys just never give up.
• Lindsey Graham - Yeah, he's running.

I only count 16 there but it was too depressing to keep searching for names. Maybe there really are 17 candidates. Now I make light of these last few candidates, but I will refer you to an SNL skit in 1992 in which the most prominent democratic candidates were humorously featured trying to avoid losing to George HW Bush. I could not find the video but here is a transcript.

If you take the time to read it, you will note that one democratic candidate is not even given stage space for the skit: William Jefferson Clinton, 42nd President of the United States. He was such a dark horse no one had even bothered to make fun of him by that point.