Inevitability Deferred

Two weeks ago, Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton appeared poised on the edge of inevitability. The hoped-for certainty was delayed and possibly even eliminated by equivocal results on Super Tuesday. Primary results since then have done nothing to vault either candidate into their respective parties's thrones.

Clinton has been surprisingly challenged by Bernie Sanders, who made a good showing on March 1st but not enough to convince any public observers that he had a long-term chance. Nevertheless, he has continued to win primaries alongside Clinton. She leads only marginally in pledged delegates and her aura of inevitability is sustained only by a horde of super delegates whose loyalty is not guaranteed.

More importantly, as some observers have noted, she continues to win states that the GOP will most likely win in the Fall, while Sanders wins states that will be more likely to vote Democrat or sit on the fence. And Sanders has the following and the energy to turn out a lot of young new voters to secure those states for the Democratic party.

Trump's own ascent has been frustrated. Indeed, the only reason he may win out in the end is because his opponents have failed to unite. Should they do so after tomorrow, it will probably be too late. He appears likely to win all but one of the winner-take-all states, with Ohio still a possibility. Should he lose Ohio to Kasich, it will make little difference because Kasich trails him more significantly than Cruz. Trumps lead will grow despite such a loss. He will continue to approach the minimum needed for an uncontested nomination in July.

However, the ugliness of the GOP primary circus has not been alleviated. Violence has erupted in and around Trump rallies. While this has preoccupied many observers, there is no sign yet that it has turned off any of Trump's supporters.

Tomorrow may very well be the day that March 1st promised to be for Trump. As for Clinton, she desperately needs some quality wins tomorrow to prove once and for all that Sanders is not a viable candidate, giving her the opportunity to turn her political weaponry against the GOP early as her nomination becomes a fait accompli.

Republican Herd Stubbornly Refuses to Be Culled

As the contest in South Carolina approaches, I am amazed by the number of republican candidates that still hold on to some shred of an idea that they may pull this thing off and win the nomination. Of course, I admire their tenacity and respect the fact that they have some reason to cling to hope. This has been a season of unexpected events.

Not many people took the candidacy of Donald Trump very seriously when this campaign season began a year ago. No one took Bernie Sanders seriously then either but he has also made his potential for winning the Democratic candidacy very obvious, with unexpectedly strong support from more than just the youth vote. A number of lesser republican candidates have similarly experienced support that even they may not have believed possible.

Who would have expected that Jeb Bush would be fighting just to stay in contention? That Chris Christie and Rick Perry would already be out of the race after experiencing such national popularity as vocal and successful republican executives? Scott Walker was a major contender for this election a year ago and now hardly anyone remembers that he was in the race.

Instead, we have a junior Senator from Florida, Marco Rubio, contending for the candidacy with much more support than Jeb. We also have a Texan Senator, Ted Cruz, despised by apparently all of his colleagues, also challenging the unlikely billionaire front-runner, Donald Trump. Meanwhile, everyone is wondering if a neophyte neurosurgeon, Ben Carson, will make a comeback and regain his prior strong support for the nomination.

Given this background, you can't blame anyone for thinking that they might win. Nevertheless, I still blame George Pataki. Thankfully, he finally retired his run for the nomination several weeks ago.

With less than a week until the South Carolina decision, Trump remains in the lead. In fact, has increased his support, much to the chagrin of the media which still likes to trumpet headlines about the Donald's nonexistent losses. Immediately after the last debate, which media pundits claimed was a huge loss for Trump, they ran headlines saying that he had suffered terrible losses. Nevertheless, polls taken the following day showed the billionaire even more solidly in the lead.

On This Wintry Iowa Caucus Eve

'Twas the night before caucus, and all through the House (of Representatives),
Not a politician was stirring, not even to grouse.
Overcome with fear of status quo nightmare,
They hoped that some solution would soon be there.

Hope is the key term tonight. Both the democratic and republican establishments are a little stunned right now. For months, they have waited for the initial excitement traditionally given to political newcomers to wear off and allow the tried-and-true insiders to take the lead. They got their wish with Ben Carson, whose foibles and inadequacies were exposed in the long, hard grind from last summer to the Iowa present.

But this return to the mean just hasn't happened with Trump and with Sanders. Trump has held onto a lead which he only briefly shared with Ben Carson. Sanders has actually climbed up from decent also-ran numbers to a shockingly competitive level of interest among likely Iowa voters. In New Hampshire, he leads.

Heads are spinning in Washington and elsewhere. To tell the truth, even I am surprised. I have referenced Jeb's money on several occasions with the open belief that his treasure chest would carry him through to the end. Only in my most secret nihilist dreams did I think that one of these two upstarts would cause some interesting chaos in primary season. I never expected to have both of them pissing off the nancy boys in their respective parties.

Still, it's not over till the fat lady sings. In question are not just the sincerity of Trump supporters to to turn out and vote on Monday night, but a possible snow storm will complicate matters even more. Candidates like Cruz have die hard supporters that will show no matter what and Clinton has an establishment network ready to work the party machinery and clinch the nomination for her.

A lot is at stake tomorrow night in Iowa. Will we have revolution or will we succumb to traditional party politics?

The Iowa Caucus Approacheth!

Since the beginning, this blog has focused on the numbers more than the quality of the candidates. Hopefully, that can begin to change as hordes of candidates drop out of the race.

For the democrats, the nature of the coming battle is essentially decided.There is the status quo candidate in Hillary Clinton and the radical left candidate in Bernie Sanders. Personally, I have despised Sanders since he played pussy to the BLM protesters back in August. However, I am glad that he is on stage because I have long felt that the hard left of the Democratic Party has been ignored.

Both parties today are really amalgams of groups which have little in common. Clinton represents the status quo party but Sanders represents the significant segment of society that thinks that America is long overdue for socialist reforms. In fact, I have a crush on him simply because some of what he says resembles my dreams when I was a young democrat who still believed that the party represented blue-collar workers and their families. However, walking away from pond scum that should have been sent packing at that meeting in August soured whatever lingering sympathy I had for him. I am not interested in an America in which rude BLM protesters have any say.

On the republican side, the equation is only starting to become clear. While some are already calling for a Trump fait accompli, I am more cautious and, as always, remember the power of money, of which Bush has a lot.

Nevertheless, things have become more clear. At the very least, that fucking zombie candidate George Pataki has dropped out. His continuing candidacy was a sign that the republican party was still playing around and not getting serious about the election. The number of real republican candidates can now be counted on one hand:

• Donald Trump. Liberals long discounted the seriousness of his campaign because they are unable to imagine a world in which people do not agree with their views on some visceral level. In the minds of liberals, conservatives would agree with them if only they would engage in dialogue. Trump's ongoing popularity may finally be beginning to show libs that some Americans are simply out to get them, with no apologies.
• Ted Cruz. Long seen as an unofficial ally of Trump's, Cruz is starting to distinguish himself from the billionaire by courting evangelicals. He is increasingly looking like the hard-right Christian candidate, though his eligibility to be POTUS is even more in question than Obama's.
• Ben Carson. His star is definitely falling and I do him a favor just including him on this list. The era of white-guilt voting is over. Carson will not be the GOP candidate unless somebody literally kills three or four other candidates.
• Marco Rubio. The press tried hard to give the candidacy to this young Latino months ago but his appeal has waned. He is not the Christian candidate and he is not the white-anger candidate. In the GOP today, this means - no votes for you!
• Chris Christie. I am not a fan but but I commend him for sticking it out, fighting his way up from the kiddie table debates to be included in the final selection. He actually has more merit than many candidates in that he has held executive office and acted as a national figure for years now.

Notice that I forgot Jeb Bush? Okay, I admit that this was intentional. I do not want another member of the ruling Clinton-Bush-Obama dynasty to win but I actually think that his chances are decent. Money talks and Bush can hang in there for months to come. It does not matter if he loses Iowa and New Hampshire. He has the cash to wait in the wings and exploit any chaos in the electoral process to his own advantage.

GOP Candidates Slogging Their Way Into Winter

As much of the Midwest, a hotbed for Republican politics, was snowed in or iced over this last week, the slightly less numerous candidates for the GOP presidential nomination reached the end of the beginning in their election campaigns. Just two months to go until the Iowa caucus voices America's first decision with regard to each candidate's legitimacy.

There are not quite so many of them now and the dynamics have changed somewhat. Donald Trump is still a leader among them but his primary rival of just a few weeks ago, Ben Carson, has seen his star decline a little. Ted Cruz and Marco Rubio have gained significant support in the polls. Jeb Bush has remained hobbled with single-digit poll numbers while some others, such as Bobby Jindal, have given up in the face of nearly non-existent support. Unbelievably, George Fucking Pataki is still officially in this race.

Here are the candidates that remain believably in this race. While Jeb Bush's numbers suggest he should possibly bow out, I will continue to include him. As I have stated before, his money can keep him in this race while he waits for one disaster or another to overtake his less-milquetoast competitors so that his blandness can finally shine.

1. Donald Trump continues to lead the pack with percentage of support somewhere in the mid-twenties. It depends on where and when you poll. Some polls have shown him briefly as high as the low 40s but these gains seem to be ephemeral. Furthermore, the Donald continues to say things that alienate, at least for a time, his less entrenched supporters. For example, he has come out in support of waterboarding and apparently made fun of a handicapped reporter's disabilities during a press conference.
2. Ben Carson has been brought down a few notches, particularly as a result of various statements he has made with regard to religious topics. He has said openly that Muslims should be prevented form holding the Presidency and he was ridiculed for speculating that the pyramids of Egypt were for holding grain rather than the corpses of deceased Pharaohs. In general, someone has made a point of degrading Carson's intelligence. I suspect that this was Trump, who has frequently bullied people with regard to their intelligence. Just look at the way that he hounded Perry out of the race.
3. Marco Rubio has certainly made a run for Golden Boy if not for the presidency. Some competent work in the debates has brought the spotlight to this young senator for Florida. In addition, his willingness to take on his former mentor, Jeb Bush, has earned him kudos from some voters.
4. It has been said in some circles that Trump is really running interference for Ted Cruz. The idea, apparently, is that Trump will eventually drop out and his supporters will have nowhere else to go but the Cruz camp. By then, Rand Paul and other potential recipients of Trumps support will have all dropped out. Whether or not such a conspiracy exists, things may play out that way. Cruz rivals Rubio now for 3rd place.

There is still a pack of others but there viability is lessening. Carly Fiorina has not made any headlines recently. Jeb Bush is still a gelding among stallions at this point. Chris Christie has managed to stir the pot with regard to certain statements made by Donald Trump but he has repeatedly replied that he is getting sick of being asked about Trump. He should be wary of getting what he wished for. The Donald is the only issue that gets him in the news.

The Democratic Debate: Tag Teaming Hillary Clinton

The Democratic debate rolled around again and it was a little more interesting this time because there were only three candidates on stage, the other likely contenders having resigned from the race. While this potentially created the opportunity to just increase the focus on the two ongoing leaders, Clinton and Sanders, it probably provided much more attention for Martin O'Malley, who was practically invisible prior to last night.

Diverse They Ain't

I have mentioned before that the Republican field of candidates is much more diverse than the Democrats' round up of the usual suspects this time around. A picture of the three contenders looks more like a klan rally than anything else.

OK, maybe that's a little unfair. After all, these three are only "white" in the very loose definition of race that exists today. Sanders is, after all, Jewish and O'Malley is Irish. The Irish were not really considered white even a century ago. Remember who was building the railroads alongside blacks and the Chinese in the 19th century?

Nevertheless, the GOP does come off with more points for diversity this time around. They've got multiple hispanics, a very viable black candidate and a woman.

How They Did

Hillary Clinton

• The other Democrats finally took off the gloves and lashed out at Hillary. Many analysts have stated previously that Hillary was going to run away with this nomination unless somebody manned up and started criticizing her. 
• Both Sanders and O'Malley were able to take the high ground diplomatically because neither of them can be tied to voting for the Middle East debacle. Clinton joined with other Democrats to vote for the controversial invasion of Iraq which undeniably led to the present chaos in that region  and in Europe.
• They were also not afraid to bring up her ties to Wall Street. However, most seem to agree that her defense was adequate. Still, it was a defense and it shows that Clinton is no longer untouchable. She is going to have to defend herself if she is going to get this nomination.

Bernie Sanders

• The biggest advance for Sanders came simply with his willingness to attack Clinton's record. Providing this contrast will undoubtedly improve his long-range chances of taking an electoral lead. 
• He failed to utilize the email issue, though, and that is perhaps Clinton's greatest weakness. This sort of cooperation among the candidates stinks and leads me to wonder if the race isn't simply an opportunity for Clinton to air out a lot of issues publicly and make voters bored of them before her cakewalk to the national election.
• Sanders also did not look good when Clinton ridiculed his idea of free college for everybody. She pointed out that this policy would use taxpayer money to pay for Donald Trump's kids to go to school. Hopefully that is the end of that piece of idiocy,

Martin O'Malley

• Martin O'Malley wins big simply for having a lot of face time with the public. This was a great opportunity for voters to hear an option to Sanders and Clinton. He presents a major threat to these other two simply by showing up and potentially leeching off undecided or less fervent voters. 
• He also joined in the attacks on Clinton. He called her a flip-flopper on gun control.
• In particular, he benefits by having had nothing to do with her war record and her participation in regime changes, such as that in Libya which has obviously destabilized the country.

I am not a Democrat but I can say that the democratic race is finally starting to look exciting. It seemed like Clinton was locking up the race when Sanders asked everyone to ignore her email dilemma. She may still run away with this one but there is at least the appearance of a real race at the moment. That will probably improve the ratings and, after all, that is all American culture really has any more: Facebook likes and Twitter hashtags.

Let Their Numbers Be Diminished: The GOP Herd Thins

Ignore the man on the far right. Everyone else does.

The first primary is still months a way but a reduction in the numbers of GOP candidates seems overdue. I am not chiming in with Trump to harass underdogs into dropping out. According to the Donald, anybody with less than 1% of the average polling should have already withdrawn. However, it sure seems like some of the men running for office should have taken the hint a while ago.


Who's Out

If you have been paying attention at all, you probably know that the Republican field of presidential candidates was pretty large this time around. Technically, it is always large as there are scores of people running obscure campaigns every time an election rolls around. This time, though, there were about 17 or 18 with recognizable faces and some chance of actually being nominated to the official candidacy of the Republican Party.

Since that inauspicious start, there have been a handful of dropouts and or demotions. Rick Perry was the first major name to drop out. His end was particularly surprising because he made a stronger run in 2012 and seemed to have put much more effort into the race this time around. He even left his job as governor of Texas in January 2015, staking everything on this run.

Scott Walker dropped out a few weeks ago. His early departure was also surprising, considering his background as conservative stalwart and successful office holder.

What is much more surprising, though, is the identities of some candidates who continue to stagger along with absolutely no chance of winning. I mean, for the love of Pete, why in the fuck is George Pataki still in this race? He is like that annoying guy who shows up uninvited to your party and just never goes home.

Nevertheless, Pataki has been shown the door, even if he has not made any movement in that direction. The fourth GOP debate has been scheduled and Pataki, along with Lindsey Graham, is scheduled neither to appear on the main stage nor at the kiddie table where the second-string waits for an injury on the field to let their stars shine, These two have not officially recused themselves ( I am not even sure that Pataki is really alive. He may be a drone) but we can finally count them out and focus on the real contenders now.

Who's In

The big kids' table will now host just eight primary candidates.

• Donald Trump. Of course, He still has about a quarter of the GOP electorate unwaveringly behind him and garners even more support on specific questions when it comes to who people trust with regard to economic or foreign policy issues.
• Ben Carson. He was actually leading the Donald in polls out of Iowa just a week ago. Since then, though, there has been a barrage of attacks on his past and his presentation of himself. My gut instinct was to suspect the liberal media of going after a successful black man who was not in their camp. Now that I have given it more thought, though, I have to wonder if Trump is not behind these leaks and attacks.
• Carly Fiorina. She's still running, even if the harridans on the View think she is ugly.
• Ted Cruz. He resonated with likely voters at the last debate and has secured a spot at this table until the primaries come, in my opinion.
• Marco Rubio. The young senator from Florida is surging after smacking Jeb Bush around at the last debate. I think we can also expect Rubio to stay among the leaders until the primaries really begin to cull the GOP numbers.
• Rand Paul. This was a surprise. I have been daily waiting for him to throw in the towel but he has been given another prime time opportunity. It may be his last but, for the meantime, he is among the leaders.
• Jeb Bush. His campaign is the very definition of fizzle but he has great big boatloads of money. No one should discount the staying power of cash, I really think that he is vulnerable this time around, though, and probably needs to make a good showing if he wants to be included in the next gathering of the cool kids.
• John Kasich. Fucking unbelievable. I had even forgotten that he was running. Not sure how this GOP zombie secured a place among the frontrunners.

Who's on the Way Out

There will be just four candidates at the early debate for also-rans.

• Bobby Jindal. Yeah, I don't get how he is still invited to anything. I have nothing against the man politically or personally but his campaign makes Jeb Bush's campaign look energetic and virile.
• Rick Santorum. He must still be getting credit for pulling off a surprise win in Iowa some years ago.
• Mike Huckabee. He seems like a friendly guy but he has made the most effete run for the presidency since Fred Thompson.
• Chris Christie. His demotion surprised me. I am not a fan but he has sounded pretty good compared to the non-presences of guys like Kasich. If anyone returns from the kiddie table to the front of the pack, it will be Christie.

So the running has been reduced to twelve. I am expecting a few resignations in the wake of this next debate. It will be interesting to see who capitulates and who continues forward with stubborn obstinacy (I'm talking to you, Pataki!).

The Democratic Debates: Clinton Uber Alles

While the Republicans have been stealing the show for months, thanks to the antics of Donald Trump, the Democrats are finally getting some limelight now that their own debates have begun. Before now, the democratic race certainly stirred interest among democrats themselves but their intrigues did not cross party lines in terms of excitement. Most republicans were entertained enough by their own party's three-ring circus.

The first democratic debate did not get nearly as much press and public attention as the republican debates but that may be due to predictability. In an interesting turn of events, it is the GOP that now holds more diverse views than the Democratic Party. With the exception of the largely-ignored Jim Webb, all democratic contenders hate guns and religion, love illegal immigration, higher taxes and homosexuality and are happy printing money for entitlement programs. Nevertheless, millions of liberal Americans tuned in to watch other people largely agree with them.

And the Winner Is...

I am sure many low-information viewers were confused as to the identities of the people on stage. The competitors really boil down to the First Two and the Other Three. While the latter group showed up, no one was really listening to anything but the presentations of Hillary Clinton and Bernie Sanders.

In the aftermath, opinions vary as to who won the debate, though the MSM would have you believe that everyone agrees with them in thinking that Hillary Clinton won. Some polls, such as a Facebook vote, gave the victory to Sanders before being erased. The same happened with an early CNN poll. I am not sure why the Founders bothered to put safeguards such as the US Senate in the government to protect against fickle public opinion when they could have just relied on the media to do so.

Essentially, however, I agree with Clinton's victory for one simple reason. No matter how she and Sanders may weigh in the balances, Clinton wins because Sanders is such a hopeless beta-male that he cannot promote himself effectively.

During the debate, he exclaimed how sick he was of hearing about Clinton's emails and basically turned attention away from potential criticisms of her work as Secretary of State. With that possibility eliminated, the other candidates did not have any way to distinguish themselves positively. Remember, none of them have any real distinct ideas about domestic and foreign policy unless they are able to point out Clinton's vote for the war in Iraq and her questionable work as Secretary of State.

This move was classic Sanders. Several weeks ago, he allowed himself to be pushed off the stage by two Black Lives Matters representatives who insulted him and the entire crowd. He was unable to do anything but pump his fist for Black Power like the effete 60's radical that he is. One wonders what Sanders would do on the world stage when Putin or Xi tried to push him around.

The Other Three and the Shadow of Joe

Mention should at least be made of Jim Webb, Lincoln Chafee and Martin O.Malley. They are really running for vice-president by now and their chances even for that scrap are slim. Maybe by now they are starting to get realistic and fix their sights on cabinet posts.

The real question at this point regards the possible entrance of Joe Biden. A lot of commentators think that Clinton's showing was strong enough to convince Biden to stay out. Of course, funding and Biden's proclivity for gaffes of all sorts may push him into the race anyway. Now that would make the debates worth watching!

Did You Know That Jim Webb Was Running for President in Election 2016?

When I started this reincarnation of a blog back in August, I did not even know that Jim Webb was running for the Democratic nomination in Election 2016. I think that I remember hearing about it months ago, probably right after he officially declared in July. But I had not retained that memory and was only reminded of the fact last week.

How did he slip under the radar? Well, Jim Webb, along with a handful of other democrats, is maintaining an average polling success somewhere between 0% and 1%. In virtually every poll he comes in behind Joe Biden, who hasn't even decided to run for the Presidency yet.

Perhaps a better question is, why is Jim Webb virtually an unknown at this point?

One could say that being behind in the polls is meaningless at this point anyway. Hell, the first primary is still four months away. Not long ago, candidates were not even on the road at this time. They were at their jobs, still thinking about running for office. These days, you have to declare yourself for one election practically before the prior election is over.

A lot can happen in four months. As I stated with regard to the opponents of Donald Trump several weeks ago, the billionaire can get a lot of free press right now but over the course of this dead period before the primaries, other candidates can generate support simply by hanging on and acting as alternatives whenever a leading candidate makes a gaffe.

Jim Webb stands to gain support whenever Sanders or Clinton begins to hemorrhage support for one reason or another. If Biden comes into the race, I predict that this will do more than turn support the Vice President's way. It will also fragment support for Clinton and send at least some dribbles of support down toward Webb, O'Malley, et al.

None of this answers the question as to why Jim Webb is so far behind. Other candidates might explain that the other campaigns are simply better funded. That is certainly true in the case of Jim Webb. However, I think that Webb is a unique creature these days, something of a last Mohican. He is a conservative democrat.

Jim Webb served as the last Secretary of the Navy in the Reagan administration. He earned the spot not only for his legal and political background but also due to serving in the Marine Corps in Vietnam in the late 1960s and early 70s. He was wounded multiple times and earned a number of decorations for bravery.

And yet, he is a democrat! Not that republican candidates have any claim on military service. Most of those bastards are cowards equal to any democratic candidate. I think, were Jim Webb a republican, he would be able to parlay this background into a superior poll ranking. Democratic voters, however, are much more interested in identity politics and victim worship.

They are actually embarrassed by people like Jim Webb, who support the 1st and 2nd amendments and believe in supporting the armed forces of the country. Democrats will take a community organizer over a decorated hero any day. Unfortunately, Republicans will adhere to a loud-mouth blowhards when all other options fail to muster any sign of manhood.

Jim Webb is still hanging on and he hopes to participate in Election 2016 as the democratic candidate for President of the United States. I fear, though, that any day could bring news of his capitulation. Good luck, Jim.

Jeb Bush Breaks Into Double Digits

The latest polls show that Jeb Bush is hanging in there. While not skyrocketing to the top of the polls, he has acquired a respectable 10% of the vote as less well-financed competition has stepped out of the race. As I said in a previous post, candidates like Jeb can afford to wait for Donald Trump to either sabotage himself or simply lose the excitement initially garnered by a new face.

In my opinion, looks too much like his mother.

I do not think that Bush's message resonates with any more voters than before. He is simply benefiting from the thinning of the ranks that has occurred and from the thinning that is about to occur. By this, I mean that many voters are starting to see how continuing to hold their vote for Jindal, Graham or Huckabee is just pointless and they are gravitating to whomever they think has a similar message and a better chance. Jeb is getting some sloppy seconds, in other words.

Nevertheless, do not think for a minute that I count him out. He was the crown prince not long ago and has simply been overshadowed for a moment by an upstart. His background and his finances can still see him through to the end, no matter how much Trump's more fervent followers would like to see him fail. I would not be surprised to see him win this thing next summer.

In fact, as much as I enjoy the chaos started by Donald Trump, I would be more surprised if that eccentric billionaire won than I would be by Bush;s eventual victory. In the end, I don't see the establishment allowing the status quo to be overturned.

Who Is Carly Fiorina?

It is hard to stand out in such a large crowd of candidates like the one that the GOP has fielded this year. Carly Fiorina is the only woman running for the republican nomination this year, so she immediately gains a little extra attention just for that. However, she has parlayed her mere position among the nominees into something much more formidable in the last few weeks.

Carly Fiorina was little more than a face in that crowd when the first GOP debate aired. In fact, she was not even allowed into the main circle of 10 front-running nominees but was rather set aside with a half dozen others in a non-debate forum. Each nominee there only had the opportunity to speak his or her piece and be done with it.

She made the most of the moment by coming off as a sober, intelligent candidate. Then she turned that into something more by playing up the idea that she had forgotten her notes and had spoken off the cuff. She earned a more prominent spot in the second GOP debate held earlier this week.

Fiorina's Background

At present, Fiorina is the chairman of a philanthropic organization known as Good 360. She is perhaps most well-known for her time as the CEO of Hewlett Packard (HP). Heading that business from 1999 to 2005, Forbes recognized her as the first woman to manage one of the top-20 companies in the world. She ran for the US Senate in 2010 in California but lost the general election to Barbara Boxer.

Among her more notable political positions are her pro-life stance, her acceptance of climate change theory and her opposition to Obamacare and the Iran nuclear agreement.

What Her Supporters Like

Fiorina's backers proudly point to her business experience as a major qualifier for the presidential role.

Her ideas are moderately conservative. For example, she is only against abortions after 20 weeks though she does state that she would defund Planned Parenthood and seek some route to overturn Roe v Wade. She proclaims support for Proposition 8 in California, which briefly banned same-sex marriage in California but worked to ensure domestic partners benefits for employees while at HP.

What Her Detractors Don't

Conservatives on the hard-right do not like her moderation. However, others have more technical and pointed concerns. For instance, although she has worked extensively in politics, she has never held public office. Furthermore, her business career does not withstand much scrutiny because she was fired from her position as CEO due to falling stock prices and a decline in earnings.

Nevertheless, in polls taken after the second debate, Fiorina appears tied with Doonald Trump. Each of them are now wielding about a quarter of the GOP electorate as the number of weaker candidates begins to decrease.

Is Donald Trump Sinking His Own Ship?

Recently, Donald Trump has tried his hardest to sabotage himself in the GOP race for the presidency. He has done this before with comments about Megyn Kelly and others but with little or no impact on his poll numbers. It remains to be seen how his latest efforts will hurt his chances or not.

Trump vs Carson

A few days ago, Ben Carson was asked to distinguish himself from Donald Trump. He responded with a remark that referenced matters of faith. He seemed to suggest that Trump's religiosity was insincere, since citing a favorite passage from the Bible would be too personal. This was not a very targeted attack and it takes a little effort to even see it as a disparaging remark at all.

That did not stop Trump from going on the attack as soon as he learned about it. He immediately referenced Carson's own faith history and shed doubt on the idea that he has been a man of faith all his life.

“All of a sudden he's becoming this man of faith," Trump snorted. The billionaire candidate also called Carson, who is renowned for neurosurgery, an "okay doctor." That is what we called damning with faint praise. Trump definitely shows here how his aggressiveness has served him in the world of business.

Carson, to his credit, heard about the dust up and apologized if it had seemed his intent to cause insult. I have not heard back on whether Trump responded in any way.

Trump vs Fiorina

"Look at that face!" Trump huffed as he spoke with a Rolling Stone interviewer and pointed to Carly Fiorina, who had just appeared on a nearby TV screen. "Would anyone vote for that?"

The cry over this one involves sexism but I think, if I may interject my own sexist viewpoint here, that this is really all about the delicacy women have with regard to their features. Had he said this about Jeb Bush, everyone would have laughed. But, as Trump immediately pointed out after letting another gaffe slip through his lips, you're not supposed to say bad things about women. You especially should not call them ugly.

The funny thing here is that all the people who are upset have probably made many a joke or laughed at many a joke about Trump's hair. But a chick's face is off limits, right?

How it Hurts

Everyone, even most republicans, think that it is funny to make a Jeb Bush joke or laugh at Lindsey Graham's attempt at the presidency. However, Carson and Fiorina belong to special groups which political correctness does not allow to be insulted in today's world: minorities and women.

I was initially surprised when I heard that Trump had gone after Carson. Carson's race generally leaves him immune to many of the most vile weapons available in a politician's arsenal. I was also curious to hear exactly how Trump had bungled this one.

But the details are quite boring. He never really insulted Carson. He made a quite probable reference to Carson's faith being a rather recent invention. Nor did he say that Carson was a lousy doctor. Plenty of people would love to be "okay doctors" in this world. It is only that he undermined the public idea that Carson was brilliant that caused Trump trouble here.

Trump also attacked a woman but this is not a first for him and it has not hurt his numbers before. Plenty of women support Trump and have publicly stated that they forgive him these faults because of other more important traits.

Does It Matter?

I think that this only looks like a major confrontation from the headlines. It is pretty obvious, after you read the first few articles about it all, that the media is trying to dig up a story here.

In the end, this is really good for Trump. I mentioned in a  previous article that the Donald's biggest enemy right now is this slow period between now and the first primary. The media continues to make headlines for him at no cost to his treasure chest.

Clear and Present Danger for Donald Trump

If you are a fan of Donald Trump, then it might be easy right now to get carried away with enthusiasm and assume that he cannot be stopped. After all, Jeb Bush is basically imploding with omega male misery and the myriad other contenders are, for the most part, swirling and spinning in the wake of Trump's speedboat.

The only real threat appears to be Ben Carson. But ask yourself, are the other candidates trying to imitate Carson to make up the difference or are they imitating Trump? GOP candidates are trying to fire up the rhetoric and appear as outspoken as the Donald now but this is a pathetic effort doomed to failure. Even the dimmest bulb in the room sees through this effort and, worse, they are going to turn off many of their more traditional supporters.

However, if you have been through a few political cycles, you can see a serious but ambiguous threat to Trump's continued popularity.

Time Destroys All Things

Trump towers someday. But maybe not in 2016!

Just think, the Iowa caucus and the New Hampshire primary are still four months away. Once those events occur, leading candidates have headlines to help carry their efforts to the next round of primaries. You can either count on winning a primary or doing better than expected to generate some free publicity and keep people interested.

But we are not in primary season. If you want to be noticed and gather support, you need to create your own stories. Now, so far Trump has had little difficulty doing this. The press has been giving him free publicity for several weeks but he was still considered a sideshow just a couple months ago. Now he has to slog through four months of quiet time.

The other candidates, even those with just a few percentage points of support, can still come back if they manage to hold on. Just like stocks usually bounce back from lows and reward investors who hold on to them, candidates can recover when emotional support for a frontrunner fades away as time passes and nothing new happens. That support has to go somewhere and it can trickle down to these stragglers and make some headlines for them.

I am not saying that Trump cannot do it, only that he has a different game ahead of him now. He has garnered a lot of press and support for being outspoken. Over four months, that will get old. He will probably have to begin producing policies and plans and compete with these others in their own games.

Clinging to a Bush

Jeb Bush has a lot of money. He can hold on. He might begin to look very good to people who tire of Trump's bluster and seek comfort in traditional candidates.  Other GOP candidates may share the same hope. Ben Carson can hope to appear as the safe and sensible alternative to "the crazies," as John McCain referred to the earliest supporters of Trump over a month ago.

Donald Trump Pledges to Stay in the GOP

I did not think that he would do it but apparently Donald Trump has pledged to support the GOP even in he loses the nomination. Given his stubborn and maverick style, I thought that he would refuse to do so and end up running as an independent if he could not pull off the nomination by next summer. Having thought it over for a couple of days, I think I can see a few good reasons why he would do so.

• He cannot get on the ballot in some states without such a pledge. I think that this is a total bullshit move on part of the GOP but apparently some primaries, such as South Carolina, operate under such rules.
• He is increasingly confident that he will, in fact, be the nominee and refusing the pledge accomplishes nothing.
• Being the Donald, he has no intention of honoring the pledge if it works against him.

There is good reason for Donald Trump to sign it now that the latest poll shows him beating Clinton in a head-to-head election. The Trump avalanche in the GOP appears to be increasingly inevitable.