The Eve of Inevitability

Super Tuesday is upon us and each side of the election process, Republican and Democrat, is nearing the point of inevitability. Trump only needs to do moderately well tomorrow to acquire the last bit of momentum needed toward the Republican nomination. Hillary Clinton, after a landslide victory in South Carolina on Saturday, is ready to put down the Socialist threat and claim the democratic throne.

How did these elevations occur? A lot of people doubted one or the other possibility, even after early victories by these two contenders for the US Presidency.

Trump's Path to Ascendancy

Naysayers in the Republican party doubted, and liberals feared, Trump's chances from the very beginning. That he had a strong and devoted following was never contested. However, he had what was an apparently firm ceiling of 30-35% support among likely voters. Surely, thought his legion opponents, the party would eventually coalesce behind an establishment candidate and send this reality-TV star packing.

But this did not happen. And, really, by the time that this need to stop Trump became truly obvious, there were not many establishment candidates left. After the Iowa caucus, people looked to Jeb Bush and his uninspired campaign to stop the push for an outsider. But Jeb's number's hadn't left single digit support since the previous fall. For all the money that he had spent (over $100 million), Jeb had generated very little support. If you were one of Jeb's supporters before he left the race last week, you should feel flattered. He probably spent thousands of dollars just on you.

Besides Jeb. there was only Rubio, the junior senator from Florida. Cruz, Carson and Kasich could hardly be called establishment candidates and they each had a non-trivial portion of the republican vote. Cruz had even won Iowa, though there remain questions about the accuracy of the results from that caucus.

The establishment never had a chance. The truth is that there are not and never were going to be enough votes for any of the establishment candidates. The people supporting Cruz, Kasich and Carson were themselves troubling signs of cracks in the GOP foundation. Trump's ascendancy is due to the flood pouring in through those cracks.

High Hillary

For a while, it looked like Sanders really had some momentum. Even a cynical old bastard like me, who would never vote for a man who backed down so cowardly in the face of an interrupting BLM protest, was moved by his America campaign ad.

There was one major problem with the ad. It was super-white. I noticed this right away but I assumed that Clinton would have a hard time motivating black voters this time around. She did not. She certainly is not generating Obama levels of black voter participation but she is getting more than enough apparently. And this voting bloc was not enthused about Sanders' message. Like other democratic voting blocs, they wanted to know what politicians are going to give them specifically and Sanders' union background and free college offer was not considered relevant enough to black Americans, if the statements of leaders like John Lewis are representative.

So we head into Super Tuesday with several candidates holding on to slim hopes for a last-minute surprise. However, Trump and Clinton appear to be riding juggernauts toward a November showdown.

Republican Herd Stubbornly Refuses to Be Culled

As the contest in South Carolina approaches, I am amazed by the number of republican candidates that still hold on to some shred of an idea that they may pull this thing off and win the nomination. Of course, I admire their tenacity and respect the fact that they have some reason to cling to hope. This has been a season of unexpected events.

Not many people took the candidacy of Donald Trump very seriously when this campaign season began a year ago. No one took Bernie Sanders seriously then either but he has also made his potential for winning the Democratic candidacy very obvious, with unexpectedly strong support from more than just the youth vote. A number of lesser republican candidates have similarly experienced support that even they may not have believed possible.

Who would have expected that Jeb Bush would be fighting just to stay in contention? That Chris Christie and Rick Perry would already be out of the race after experiencing such national popularity as vocal and successful republican executives? Scott Walker was a major contender for this election a year ago and now hardly anyone remembers that he was in the race.

Instead, we have a junior Senator from Florida, Marco Rubio, contending for the candidacy with much more support than Jeb. We also have a Texan Senator, Ted Cruz, despised by apparently all of his colleagues, also challenging the unlikely billionaire front-runner, Donald Trump. Meanwhile, everyone is wondering if a neophyte neurosurgeon, Ben Carson, will make a comeback and regain his prior strong support for the nomination.

Given this background, you can't blame anyone for thinking that they might win. Nevertheless, I still blame George Pataki. Thankfully, he finally retired his run for the nomination several weeks ago.

With less than a week until the South Carolina decision, Trump remains in the lead. In fact, has increased his support, much to the chagrin of the media which still likes to trumpet headlines about the Donald's nonexistent losses. Immediately after the last debate, which media pundits claimed was a huge loss for Trump, they ran headlines saying that he had suffered terrible losses. Nevertheless, polls taken the following day showed the billionaire even more solidly in the lead.

GOP Candidates Slogging Their Way Into Winter

As much of the Midwest, a hotbed for Republican politics, was snowed in or iced over this last week, the slightly less numerous candidates for the GOP presidential nomination reached the end of the beginning in their election campaigns. Just two months to go until the Iowa caucus voices America's first decision with regard to each candidate's legitimacy.

There are not quite so many of them now and the dynamics have changed somewhat. Donald Trump is still a leader among them but his primary rival of just a few weeks ago, Ben Carson, has seen his star decline a little. Ted Cruz and Marco Rubio have gained significant support in the polls. Jeb Bush has remained hobbled with single-digit poll numbers while some others, such as Bobby Jindal, have given up in the face of nearly non-existent support. Unbelievably, George Fucking Pataki is still officially in this race.

Here are the candidates that remain believably in this race. While Jeb Bush's numbers suggest he should possibly bow out, I will continue to include him. As I have stated before, his money can keep him in this race while he waits for one disaster or another to overtake his less-milquetoast competitors so that his blandness can finally shine.

1. Donald Trump continues to lead the pack with percentage of support somewhere in the mid-twenties. It depends on where and when you poll. Some polls have shown him briefly as high as the low 40s but these gains seem to be ephemeral. Furthermore, the Donald continues to say things that alienate, at least for a time, his less entrenched supporters. For example, he has come out in support of waterboarding and apparently made fun of a handicapped reporter's disabilities during a press conference.
2. Ben Carson has been brought down a few notches, particularly as a result of various statements he has made with regard to religious topics. He has said openly that Muslims should be prevented form holding the Presidency and he was ridiculed for speculating that the pyramids of Egypt were for holding grain rather than the corpses of deceased Pharaohs. In general, someone has made a point of degrading Carson's intelligence. I suspect that this was Trump, who has frequently bullied people with regard to their intelligence. Just look at the way that he hounded Perry out of the race.
3. Marco Rubio has certainly made a run for Golden Boy if not for the presidency. Some competent work in the debates has brought the spotlight to this young senator for Florida. In addition, his willingness to take on his former mentor, Jeb Bush, has earned him kudos from some voters.
4. It has been said in some circles that Trump is really running interference for Ted Cruz. The idea, apparently, is that Trump will eventually drop out and his supporters will have nowhere else to go but the Cruz camp. By then, Rand Paul and other potential recipients of Trumps support will have all dropped out. Whether or not such a conspiracy exists, things may play out that way. Cruz rivals Rubio now for 3rd place.

There is still a pack of others but there viability is lessening. Carly Fiorina has not made any headlines recently. Jeb Bush is still a gelding among stallions at this point. Chris Christie has managed to stir the pot with regard to certain statements made by Donald Trump but he has repeatedly replied that he is getting sick of being asked about Trump. He should be wary of getting what he wished for. The Donald is the only issue that gets him in the news.

Let Their Numbers Be Diminished: The GOP Herd Thins

Ignore the man on the far right. Everyone else does.

The first primary is still months a way but a reduction in the numbers of GOP candidates seems overdue. I am not chiming in with Trump to harass underdogs into dropping out. According to the Donald, anybody with less than 1% of the average polling should have already withdrawn. However, it sure seems like some of the men running for office should have taken the hint a while ago.


Who's Out

If you have been paying attention at all, you probably know that the Republican field of presidential candidates was pretty large this time around. Technically, it is always large as there are scores of people running obscure campaigns every time an election rolls around. This time, though, there were about 17 or 18 with recognizable faces and some chance of actually being nominated to the official candidacy of the Republican Party.

Since that inauspicious start, there have been a handful of dropouts and or demotions. Rick Perry was the first major name to drop out. His end was particularly surprising because he made a stronger run in 2012 and seemed to have put much more effort into the race this time around. He even left his job as governor of Texas in January 2015, staking everything on this run.

Scott Walker dropped out a few weeks ago. His early departure was also surprising, considering his background as conservative stalwart and successful office holder.

What is much more surprising, though, is the identities of some candidates who continue to stagger along with absolutely no chance of winning. I mean, for the love of Pete, why in the fuck is George Pataki still in this race? He is like that annoying guy who shows up uninvited to your party and just never goes home.

Nevertheless, Pataki has been shown the door, even if he has not made any movement in that direction. The fourth GOP debate has been scheduled and Pataki, along with Lindsey Graham, is scheduled neither to appear on the main stage nor at the kiddie table where the second-string waits for an injury on the field to let their stars shine, These two have not officially recused themselves ( I am not even sure that Pataki is really alive. He may be a drone) but we can finally count them out and focus on the real contenders now.

Who's In

The big kids' table will now host just eight primary candidates.

• Donald Trump. Of course, He still has about a quarter of the GOP electorate unwaveringly behind him and garners even more support on specific questions when it comes to who people trust with regard to economic or foreign policy issues.
• Ben Carson. He was actually leading the Donald in polls out of Iowa just a week ago. Since then, though, there has been a barrage of attacks on his past and his presentation of himself. My gut instinct was to suspect the liberal media of going after a successful black man who was not in their camp. Now that I have given it more thought, though, I have to wonder if Trump is not behind these leaks and attacks.
• Carly Fiorina. She's still running, even if the harridans on the View think she is ugly.
• Ted Cruz. He resonated with likely voters at the last debate and has secured a spot at this table until the primaries come, in my opinion.
• Marco Rubio. The young senator from Florida is surging after smacking Jeb Bush around at the last debate. I think we can also expect Rubio to stay among the leaders until the primaries really begin to cull the GOP numbers.
• Rand Paul. This was a surprise. I have been daily waiting for him to throw in the towel but he has been given another prime time opportunity. It may be his last but, for the meantime, he is among the leaders.
• Jeb Bush. His campaign is the very definition of fizzle but he has great big boatloads of money. No one should discount the staying power of cash, I really think that he is vulnerable this time around, though, and probably needs to make a good showing if he wants to be included in the next gathering of the cool kids.
• John Kasich. Fucking unbelievable. I had even forgotten that he was running. Not sure how this GOP zombie secured a place among the frontrunners.

Who's on the Way Out

There will be just four candidates at the early debate for also-rans.

• Bobby Jindal. Yeah, I don't get how he is still invited to anything. I have nothing against the man politically or personally but his campaign makes Jeb Bush's campaign look energetic and virile.
• Rick Santorum. He must still be getting credit for pulling off a surprise win in Iowa some years ago.
• Mike Huckabee. He seems like a friendly guy but he has made the most effete run for the presidency since Fred Thompson.
• Chris Christie. His demotion surprised me. I am not a fan but he has sounded pretty good compared to the non-presences of guys like Kasich. If anyone returns from the kiddie table to the front of the pack, it will be Christie.

So the running has been reduced to twelve. I am expecting a few resignations in the wake of this next debate. It will be interesting to see who capitulates and who continues forward with stubborn obstinacy (I'm talking to you, Pataki!).

Donald Trump: Bullying Opponents Out of the Race

Donald Trump is looking to bully another GOP opponent out of the race. It is becoming obvious that this was and is a major technique for Trump in business. Using pure, masculine aggressiveness to improve your position and drive away weaker contenders. It probably works well for him in the business arena but it remains to be seen if it will work in the long term in politics.

You're Fired!

Trump is forecasting that Rand Paul will soon drop out of the race and takes credit for pushing him into this decision.Rand Paul generally garners about 2% of the vote in polls conducted among likely GOP voters. All this after years of hard work and a much bugger percentage gained by his father in GOP races in 2012. In fact, Ron Paul went all the way to the General Convention and still got 190 votes when Romney essentially had the thing locked up.

Trump is probably right. Rand Paul, as well as several others, look poised to bow out of the race. Though there is still a long way to go and anything can happen, with so many contenders it just makes sense for someone with roughly 1% of the vote to step out. What is remarkable about this moment in American politics is how it appears that a leading candidate is actively trying to push people out of the race.

I an not sure that this is a good idea for Donald Trump in the long-term. It may be satisfying and it may appeal to his desire for conflict, but it may also strengthen his more popular opponents. One wonders how many Paul voters are likely to come into Trump's camp rather than throw in their lot with Rubio, Cruz or Fiorina. Paul was known for his libertarian views and it is anyone's guess where his support may go.

The Chink in Trump's Armor

At the same time, Donald Trump seems to have displayed, for the first time, a weakness. He already admits that he has a fallback plan for failure. If his numbers get down to Scott Walker levels, he claims, he will just go back to running his business.

Is this an accidental slip that reveals some psychic weariness of the whole race? Is Trump already thinking about quitting and going back to his natural realm in business? Surely, the few times that his handlers have convinced him to moderate his remarks or apologize must rankle him. Perhaps Trump will make his own exit before anyone expects it.

That certainly won't happen now. Donald Trump still has a loyal core of followers giving him roughly 25% of the support available for GOP candidates. I am not sure that he will make it to the primaries due to his own quirky nature but I am sure that he will continue to entertain us for a few more weeks at least,

The Competition: Republicans

There is probably more competition, in terms of quantity anyway, for the office of President of the United States than anytime before in my memory. I remember the Democratic queue being laughably long in 1988 but the republican turnout this year is ridiculously huge. I have heard the number 17 in the press. Let's see if I can actually dig up these individuals from the dogpile.

I will divide the competition into two categories, if only for the sake of breaking up the text. More elaborate reviews of each candidate will follow as time permits and as candidates gain legitimacy. I'm not going to devote significant time to men like Lindsey Graham or Rick Santorum until they pick up some real numbers.

Contenders

• Donald Trump - Enough said so far. Let's look at the others.
• Ben Carson - Retired neurosurgeon notable for a few reasons in my mind: he is the only other candidate to receive double-digit support in current polls, he is more cerebral than the other candidates and he is black. That last point may seem blunt but if you don't think that race is a factor in modern politics then you are either disingenuous or stupid. I won't say that you are both because stupid people are incapable of being disingenuous.
• Jeb Bush - Former governor of Florida and a member of the Bush clan. He was the one expected to run for the office back in 2000 but the option went to the crown prince of the clan, GW Bush. Notable for his marriage to a Latin American woman, conversion to Catholicism and a low-key approach to confrontations.
• Marco Rubio - Junior senator from Florida. He is comparatively young (44) and of Latin background. This may be crucial in the long run if the republicans want more of the Latino vote. I'll explain why the concept of a Latino vote is ridiculous later.
• Ted Cruz - Another young (44) Latino senator, this one from Texas. He is associated with the Tea Party.
• Scott Walker - Fairly young (47) governor of Wisconsin. Notable for youth and executive experience as a governor. He is anti-abortion, even in cases of rape or incest.
• Carly Fiorina - Left out of the debate of the top ten candidates a few weeks ago, Fiorina has fought her way into the inner circle, mostly due to an off-the-cuff speech given outside that forum. She has much business experience but has never won political office.
• John Kasich - A career politician, he first gained office in the Ohio Senate in 1978 at age 26. He has been governor of that state since 2010.
• Chris Christie - Governor of New Jersey since 2010, he is notable for his tough stances on certain issues but also for working closely with President Obama after Hurricane Sandy devastated his state. In addition, his morbid obesity was allegedly recognized as a major bar keeping him from higher office. Somewhere along the way, he has lost some weight and people do not mention the issue. 

Dark Horses

The placement of some of the following in this category is debatable and they could easily be interchanged with some of the above. It will take some time to eliminate the hopeless cases and form a better idea of the republican field before January 2016, when the first primaries occur.

• Rand Paul - Son of Congressman Ron Paul and Senator from Kentucky. He is the darling of the libertarian fringe of the republican party.
• Mike Huckabee - Southern Baptist minister and former governor of Arkansas. He is notable for his strong evangelical views and his Fox TV show the Huckabee Report, which he abandoned in January 2015 to run for President.
• Rick Perry - He took over governorship of Texas after GW Bush won the presidency in 2000. He ran for POTUS in 2012 but lost the nomination to Mitt Romney. Trump may have given his failing candidacy a fatal blow when he made repeated references to Perry's allegedly low IQ.
• George Pataki - Former governor of New York and soon-to-be former candidate for the republican nomination.
• Bobby Jindal - Governor of Louisiana and former US congressman. He is just 44 years old, known for his conversion to Catholicism and strong moral stances.
• Rick Santorum - Some guys just never give up.
• Lindsey Graham - Yeah, he's running.

I only count 16 there but it was too depressing to keep searching for names. Maybe there really are 17 candidates. Now I make light of these last few candidates, but I will refer you to an SNL skit in 1992 in which the most prominent democratic candidates were humorously featured trying to avoid losing to George HW Bush. I could not find the video but here is a transcript.

If you take the time to read it, you will note that one democratic candidate is not even given stage space for the skit: William Jefferson Clinton, 42nd President of the United States. He was such a dark horse no one had even bothered to make fun of him by that point.