Monday, March 14, 2016

Inevitability Deferred

Two weeks ago, Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton appeared poised on the edge of inevitability. The hoped-for certainty was delayed and possibly even eliminated by equivocal results on Super Tuesday. Primary results since then have done nothing to vault either candidate into their respective parties's thrones.

Clinton has been surprisingly challenged by Bernie Sanders, who made a good showing on March 1st but not enough to convince any public observers that he had a long-term chance. Nevertheless, he has continued to win primaries alongside Clinton. She leads only marginally in pledged delegates and her aura of inevitability is sustained only by a horde of super delegates whose loyalty is not guaranteed.

More importantly, as some observers have noted, she continues to win states that the GOP will most likely win in the Fall, while Sanders wins states that will be more likely to vote Democrat or sit on the fence. And Sanders has the following and the energy to turn out a lot of young new voters to secure those states for the Democratic party.

Trump's own ascent has been frustrated. Indeed, the only reason he may win out in the end is because his opponents have failed to unite. Should they do so after tomorrow, it will probably be too late. He appears likely to win all but one of the winner-take-all states, with Ohio still a possibility. Should he lose Ohio to Kasich, it will make little difference because Kasich trails him more significantly than Cruz. Trumps lead will grow despite such a loss. He will continue to approach the minimum needed for an uncontested nomination in July.

However, the ugliness of the GOP primary circus has not been alleviated. Violence has erupted in and around Trump rallies. While this has preoccupied many observers, there is no sign yet that it has turned off any of Trump's supporters.

Tomorrow may very well be the day that March 1st promised to be for Trump. As for Clinton, she desperately needs some quality wins tomorrow to prove once and for all that Sanders is not a viable candidate, giving her the opportunity to turn her political weaponry against the GOP early as her nomination becomes a fait accompli.

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