Did You Know That Jim Webb Was Running for President in Election 2016?

When I started this reincarnation of a blog back in August, I did not even know that Jim Webb was running for the Democratic nomination in Election 2016. I think that I remember hearing about it months ago, probably right after he officially declared in July. But I had not retained that memory and was only reminded of the fact last week.

How did he slip under the radar? Well, Jim Webb, along with a handful of other democrats, is maintaining an average polling success somewhere between 0% and 1%. In virtually every poll he comes in behind Joe Biden, who hasn't even decided to run for the Presidency yet.

Perhaps a better question is, why is Jim Webb virtually an unknown at this point?

One could say that being behind in the polls is meaningless at this point anyway. Hell, the first primary is still four months away. Not long ago, candidates were not even on the road at this time. They were at their jobs, still thinking about running for office. These days, you have to declare yourself for one election practically before the prior election is over.

A lot can happen in four months. As I stated with regard to the opponents of Donald Trump several weeks ago, the billionaire can get a lot of free press right now but over the course of this dead period before the primaries, other candidates can generate support simply by hanging on and acting as alternatives whenever a leading candidate makes a gaffe.

Jim Webb stands to gain support whenever Sanders or Clinton begins to hemorrhage support for one reason or another. If Biden comes into the race, I predict that this will do more than turn support the Vice President's way. It will also fragment support for Clinton and send at least some dribbles of support down toward Webb, O'Malley, et al.

None of this answers the question as to why Jim Webb is so far behind. Other candidates might explain that the other campaigns are simply better funded. That is certainly true in the case of Jim Webb. However, I think that Webb is a unique creature these days, something of a last Mohican. He is a conservative democrat.

Jim Webb served as the last Secretary of the Navy in the Reagan administration. He earned the spot not only for his legal and political background but also due to serving in the Marine Corps in Vietnam in the late 1960s and early 70s. He was wounded multiple times and earned a number of decorations for bravery.

And yet, he is a democrat! Not that republican candidates have any claim on military service. Most of those bastards are cowards equal to any democratic candidate. I think, were Jim Webb a republican, he would be able to parlay this background into a superior poll ranking. Democratic voters, however, are much more interested in identity politics and victim worship.

They are actually embarrassed by people like Jim Webb, who support the 1st and 2nd amendments and believe in supporting the armed forces of the country. Democrats will take a community organizer over a decorated hero any day. Unfortunately, Republicans will adhere to a loud-mouth blowhards when all other options fail to muster any sign of manhood.

Jim Webb is still hanging on and he hopes to participate in Election 2016 as the democratic candidate for President of the United States. I fear, though, that any day could bring news of his capitulation. Good luck, Jim.

Election 2016: What Is Wrong with This Country?

The answer to this question depends on who you ask. More than one social commentator has spoken about the growing divide between Americans with regard to political views. Even someone like me, just in his 40s, can remember a time when liberals and conservatives found common ground on numerous issues. More importantly, we all went to social gatherings and managed to get along in public. As Election 2016 nears, the issues that divide us became ever more clear.

Now, the tone has changed significantly. I was saddened to see a Facebook friend proudly proclaim that she would immediately block anyone who ever posted anything that she felt was sexist. There would be no discussion and no appeal. The person would simply be gone. Leaving aside all the comments I could make about the hubris of actually thinking that banning people from your friend list was some sort of significant threat, I thought how awful this person must be inside to be so eager to cut off relationships based on differing perceptions.

But that is increasingly the way that it is in this country. I find that it is impossible to have a distinct opinion about matters of race, sex, gender etc. without suffering immediate insult.

If I state that I do not think that Bruce Jenner is a woman, and point out simple scientific facts about trillions of cells in his body possessing the Y-chromosome, I should not expect a calm rejoinder about different views of what composes one's gender. Instead, I should be prepared to be outed in violent verbal fashion as a sexist, transphobe or whatever the fuck they call it. I can also expect to lose a friendship, apparently.

If I suggest that we are a country of immigrants and share a great deal in common with Latin Americans when compared to other immigrant waves, I can expect an energetic tirade about Mexican cartels and Latin American welfare queens and remittance schemes.

The distinct answers to this question, then, are really the answer themselves. The problem is this great divide in the perception of present reality. Each side sees completely different things wrong with the country.

What Liberals Think Is Wrong with This Country

When I was young, I definitely thought of myself as a liberal. As a liberal, I had a distinct set of concerns. They were mostly focused on working families and their economic viability. I was afraid that big business would not take care of these people without government interference to ensure their protection and their proper compensation for their work.

One motivation for leaving the Democratic party, to which I briefly belonged in the early 1990s, was the changing focus of the democrats. I do not know any liberals now who really seem to care about poor white men living in trailers and trying to support families. Instead, those men are seen increasingly as the problem by liberals. These uneducated men are likely racist and sexist.

Instead, liberal concerns seem to have turned toward identity politics. It does not seem to matter if you are earning a wage to support a family. Indeed, I believe that many liberals see the family as a unit of oppression. It appears to me that liberals envision a future of individuals who are freed from any kind of bonds on their identities: neither race nor gender nor religion will define a person.

Indeed, religion is an immensely important sub-topic in this discussion. When I was that young man so long ago, both liberals and conservatives went to church on Sunday. If anything, this issue divides liberals and conservatives more distinctly than any other. Liberals, by and large, do not go to church or they go to churches which speak more often about social issues than they do about theological issues.

While some liberals will hold back when discussing religion when they are around people whom they know to be adherents of one faith or another, Internet forums make it quite obvious that they truly despise religion and consider believers to be idiots in whom their can be no sort of trust with regard to the arch-important matters of sexism, racism etc.

What Conservatives Think Is Wrong with This Country

If you are having this conversation with a group of people and suddenly switch from a liberal to a conservative reply, you might think that you are asking questions about two different countries.

To conservatives heading into Election 2016, it appears that liberals are living in some sort of illusory world. This perception is best described by the recent Bruce Jenner event in which he altered his body surgically and declared himself to be a woman. The press immediately began using the feminine pronoun to describe Jenner. It makes conservatives think that liberals use some kind of magical thinking: whatever you think to be true is true, apparently. Conservatives begin to ask, can you make 2+2=5 in that world?

Conservatives see a black man in the presidency and assume that racism is essentially over and everyone can move on. Obviously, race did not keep a black man from reaching the highest office, so how can racism still be impacting black lives?

Conservatives fear the increasing atomization of the family. They see it as responsible for crime and even disease in the long run. Generally, they see the nuclear family as ideal.

You would have to dig deep to find a conservative who did not believe in the essential equality of the races, at least with regard to rights. However, conservatives tend to guard their opinions about the natural abilities and inclinations of each race. Decades ago, it was common for people to speak about the goals and inclinations of each race in distinct ways. Now that this is forbidden, conservatives may pay lip service to the idea of absolute equality but carefully reveal dissidence in guarded conversations.

Conservatives are also still concerned about economic issues form the cold war. They are fearful of a perceived rising socialist threat in the advance of the welfare state.

Immigration has become the biggest conservative concern, possibly because it naturally includes so many of the issues which divide liberals and conservatives. Here you find race and economics together.

Conservatives, in general, treasure the European history which they inherited and the influence of European immigrants on the country in the past. The waves of Latin American immigration which have battered the shores of this country in recent decades concern them greatly for two reasons: they see an eroding of the cultural foundations of the country and they are afraid of the economic impact of so many people living off other people's taxes.

Exceptions to the Rule

There are liberals who are in favor of greater immigration restrictions and conservatives who do not believe in God.

Certainly, the American political landscape is and always has been somewhat kaleidoscopic. My point is that it is much less so now than it was in the previous decades. Reading history, though, I can see that this concentration or crystallization of political viewpoints has happened before. Unfortunately, those periods always did great damage to the country in one way or another.

What Do I Think Is Wrong with This Country?

Most liberals that I know would definitely call me a sexist and a racist, though I am married to a Latin American woman and have experience raising a child in the home while my wife was the breadwinner. That is one of the reasons that I am not a liberal. In my opinion, they do in fact live in an imaginary world in which they can change reality with magical thinking.

Most conservatives would call me a liberal. I speak Spanish and have spent years working as a volunteer to help undocumented workers survive in this country. I like the free market but I have no problem with putting a wrecking ball to the whole health care industry and making government health insurance available to all citizens. I would definitely soak the rich by increasing their taxes.

So what do I think is wrong? The biggest problem is the division of the country into two camps. In the end, it may go back to the whole religion issue. Once liberals stopped going to church, we lost a common ground for meeting. Now liberal ideas were for the most part, cooked up outside the churches and those who remained inside the church walls began to strengthen the defenses.

We are already at war, in a sense. We just haven't started killing anybody. I certainly do not know the best way to resolve this growing divide. I am afraid that the only answer will come from the intensification of the conflict. If you look back at the history of the Civil War, you can see how the country simply came to the point where the only answer was bloodshed. People lost the ability to discuss the issues anymore.

I have good reason for thinking that it will not come to actual physical conflict in the future. I think that our individual lives are so free from the usual concerns of the past that we will not generate the motivation to go to war over these issues. For instance, everyone has more than enough to eat and a secure place to live. It is difficult to work up the ferocity required for war when you are physically comfortable.

But events can always take strange turns. You could have made the case, in the prosperous American colonies of 1770, that revolution against England was an absurd idea. Yet it happened. I hope, for the sake of my children, that we find a way to avoid conflict both before and after Election 2016 while actually working on real resolutions to our differences.

Jeb Bush Breaks Into Double Digits

The latest polls show that Jeb Bush is hanging in there. While not skyrocketing to the top of the polls, he has acquired a respectable 10% of the vote as less well-financed competition has stepped out of the race. As I said in a previous post, candidates like Jeb can afford to wait for Donald Trump to either sabotage himself or simply lose the excitement initially garnered by a new face.

In my opinion, looks too much like his mother.

I do not think that Bush's message resonates with any more voters than before. He is simply benefiting from the thinning of the ranks that has occurred and from the thinning that is about to occur. By this, I mean that many voters are starting to see how continuing to hold their vote for Jindal, Graham or Huckabee is just pointless and they are gravitating to whomever they think has a similar message and a better chance. Jeb is getting some sloppy seconds, in other words.

Nevertheless, do not think for a minute that I count him out. He was the crown prince not long ago and has simply been overshadowed for a moment by an upstart. His background and his finances can still see him through to the end, no matter how much Trump's more fervent followers would like to see him fail. I would not be surprised to see him win this thing next summer.

In fact, as much as I enjoy the chaos started by Donald Trump, I would be more surprised if that eccentric billionaire won than I would be by Bush;s eventual victory. In the end, I don't see the establishment allowing the status quo to be overturned.

Who Is Marco Rubio?

After the second GOP debate, three top candidates were reconfirmed in their positions: Donald Trump, Carly Fiorina and Ben Carson. An additional member of the pack stepped into the foreground: Marco Rubio.

Some Biographical Data

Marco Rubio is one of the younger republicans running for national office this year. As of this writing, he is just 44 years old. If elected, he would be one of the youngest men to ever hold the highest office in the land.

Youth is not the only thing that distinguishes Rubio from past and present GOP candidates. He is a Cuban-American from Florida, one of three serving in the US Senate. His youth and ethnicity single him out at a time when liberals are more likely than ever to depict the Republican Party as a party of old, white men.

Furthermore, Rubio is a Roman Catholic. Only one Roman Catholic, the democrat John Kennedy, has ever served as US President, though the US population is more than 20% Catholic.

Political Background

Marco Rubio won his first election in 1999, when he narrowly defeated an opponent for the Florida State House of Representatives. In just three years, he became the Majority leader in that representative body. By 2009 he was ready for bigger things and ran for the US Senate seat that had been opened by resignation. He defeated the governor of that state, Charlie Crist, in that election.

As junior Senator from Florida, Rubio has represented ideas that have become fairly typical for Republicans today. He won his seat with strong Tea Party support. He has since distinguished himself somewhat from that political group with his stance on immigration reform (rather than enforcement) and his call for strengthening the military.

He takes a strong anti-abortion stance and received a B+ from the NRA on the issue of gun control. He is less republican on climate change, essentially taking an agnostic stance.

It remains to be seen whether Rubio will have the organization behind him to manage this sudden limelight. However, if his past is any indicator, he has been aiming for greater things since the very beginning.

GOP Front Runners

Even though we are far away from the Iowa caucus on February 1, things have really heated up in the Republican presidential race. Out of the crowd of some 15 or 16 remaining candidates, there are four distinct front runners coming out of the second debate.

• Donald Trump

Trump came away from the debate with fewer adherents apparently.

The latest polls have him at 24% support. Earlier surveys had put him above 30%. Most people seemed to think he either just held his own or did poorly at the forum of ten leading republicans that convened last week. So many posts are devoted to the Donald that I won't waste more space on him here.

• Ben Carson

Carson appears to be essentially tied with Carly Fiorina for second. Each of them comes in with 15% of the total GOP support. For Carson, this is a letdown because he was a strong second in the week leading up to the second GOP debate. I have already dedicated a lot of space to Carson so I will leave it at that.    

• Carly Fiorina

The former HP CEO made major gains after this last debate. There was a lot of buzz about her but not much movement in the polls prior to that. The expectations were high after her better-than-expected showing at the non-debate held outside the first GOP debate. She accomplished her mission and rose to vie with arson for second-place in republican hearts,

• Marco Rubio
  
  Someone was destined to rise up out of the remaining pack and make a respectable showing with these three leaders. Marco Rubio finally lifted his head above the rest and stood tall with Trump, Fiorina, and Carson. The junior US Senator from Florida since 2011, he is just 44 years old and notably hispanic. 

I'll give Rubio his own column shortly. In the meantime, I am noticing that the party which liberals characterize as old, white and male is supporting black, hispanic and female candidates, one of whom is just 44 years old.

The Walking Dead: Why the Republican Nominees Don't Give Up

When I see that some of the GOP nominees are still polling somewhere between 0 and 1% of the republican vote, I have a hard time figuring out why they are still in the race when virtually no one has expressed interest in their candidacy so far. Are they just stubborn or are they convinced that they can turn things around if they just hang on long enough?

It actually makes my brain hurt to think that George Pataki is still in this thing. He and some of his fellow nominees remind me of scenes from the Walking Dead where armies of zombies march silently on.

Is that Scott Walker in front?

After thinking about it for a while, though, the answer should become obvious to everyone. Give it enough thinking and the answer actually becomes disturbing.

I once jokingly suggested that the nominees were simply running to see who would be Donald Trump's VP. I was only being semi-facetious and I am not that convinced that Trump will be the last one standing. However, there is probably more truth in that statement than I originally thought.

Many of the people up on the stage during the debates are probably thinking that they can secure cabinet positions by hanging in there and demonstrating that a portion of the conservative electorate believes in them. I would guess that Lindsey Graham has his eyes on the Defense Department from all his war-hawking. Christie might have the State Department or even the vice-presidency in mind. One wonders what Mike Huckabee would actually want.

These positions are not just opportunities to stay in the limelight and position themselves for a future run at the presidency again. Federal jobs in the Administrative and in the Legislative branches come with hefty salaries and excellent retirement packages. Once you have been in a federal elected post or in the president's cabinet, you qualify for lasting benefits which vary depending on how much you earned and how long you held your post.

I think that these people are just eyeing potential gigs with the next POTUS. They are planning on putting in hours and credits just like regular people that try to get in enough work time to make meager increases in their social security or their own retirement packages. But at this level, they are guaranteeing themselves some really sweet benefits when compared to what most of us can ever expect.

After I got this idea, I still wondered at the number of would-be candidates. After all, this benefit of federal work has existed for some time. Why the rush now to get into the government? Is it because they are all in a position to understand that guarantees are running out? That the US government would be the last domino to fall during hard economic times? Do they agree with the doomsayers running around and predicting economic collapse?

Maybe of a lot these zombie nominees are really just trying to get last-minute tickets on Noah's Ark because they know that it is already raining. Depressing, I know.

Who Is Carly Fiorina?

It is hard to stand out in such a large crowd of candidates like the one that the GOP has fielded this year. Carly Fiorina is the only woman running for the republican nomination this year, so she immediately gains a little extra attention just for that. However, she has parlayed her mere position among the nominees into something much more formidable in the last few weeks.

Carly Fiorina was little more than a face in that crowd when the first GOP debate aired. In fact, she was not even allowed into the main circle of 10 front-running nominees but was rather set aside with a half dozen others in a non-debate forum. Each nominee there only had the opportunity to speak his or her piece and be done with it.

She made the most of the moment by coming off as a sober, intelligent candidate. Then she turned that into something more by playing up the idea that she had forgotten her notes and had spoken off the cuff. She earned a more prominent spot in the second GOP debate held earlier this week.

Fiorina's Background

At present, Fiorina is the chairman of a philanthropic organization known as Good 360. She is perhaps most well-known for her time as the CEO of Hewlett Packard (HP). Heading that business from 1999 to 2005, Forbes recognized her as the first woman to manage one of the top-20 companies in the world. She ran for the US Senate in 2010 in California but lost the general election to Barbara Boxer.

Among her more notable political positions are her pro-life stance, her acceptance of climate change theory and her opposition to Obamacare and the Iran nuclear agreement.

What Her Supporters Like

Fiorina's backers proudly point to her business experience as a major qualifier for the presidential role.

Her ideas are moderately conservative. For example, she is only against abortions after 20 weeks though she does state that she would defund Planned Parenthood and seek some route to overturn Roe v Wade. She proclaims support for Proposition 8 in California, which briefly banned same-sex marriage in California but worked to ensure domestic partners benefits for employees while at HP.

What Her Detractors Don't

Conservatives on the hard-right do not like her moderation. However, others have more technical and pointed concerns. For instance, although she has worked extensively in politics, she has never held public office. Furthermore, her business career does not withstand much scrutiny because she was fired from her position as CEO due to falling stock prices and a decline in earnings.

Nevertheless, in polls taken after the second debate, Fiorina appears tied with Doonald Trump. Each of them are now wielding about a quarter of the GOP electorate as the number of weaker candidates begins to decrease.

Is There Anyone Else Running for President?

While I have ridiculed some of the unlikelier efforts to run for president (I'm talking to you, Rick Santorum and Lindsey Graham), I should probably devote at least a little space to the horde of third-party candidates that have gathered once again tilt at windmills. Here are some of the more notable Quixotes under their party banners (source):

American Freedom Party

Robert Whitaker of South Carolina leads the ticket for this party. I am not sure what more to say about this party except that the article posted here on their website proves that they are burdened with some serious mental disorders.

Constitution Party

There are several candidates from this party apparently running for the nomination. They have their seven principles on their website. They look to be, in the contemporary environment, pretty reactionary. It is interesting to note that they would have been very middle of the road or even somewhat liberal viewpoints a century or less ago.

Green Party

The watermelon party: green on the outside and red on the inside. They also have fielded several candidates for the nomination Darryl Cherny of Northern California has his exploratory committee's web presence on Facebook..

Libertarian Party

As always, the Libertarian party has gathered their merry band of misfits for another nomination party. Most notable among them is Gary Johnson, former governor of New Mexico. His webpage has some jazzy music and focuses on the examination and redefinition of liberty and freedom.

Party of Socialism and Liberation

This party has the perfect PC ticket. They have already selected their candidates: a hispanic woman for the presidency and a black man for the vice presidency. Gloria LaRiva comes out of California and Eugene Puryear is from DC. There platform appears to be straightforward socialism. They mix a little environmentalism in with their ideas, saying that "for the Earth to live, Capitalism must end!".

I always thought that socialism was meant to save the working class. Looks like those workers can go fuck themselves, 'cause were savin' the planet!

Peace and Freedom Party

Believe it or not, Roseanne Barr is running for president! Along with a few others, she is seeking the nomination for the presidential ticket of the Peace and Freedom Party. What I don't understand is how Gloria LaRiva is also running for this party's ticket. Maybe this is like taking the side bet in blackjack.

Prohibition Party

It may be hard to imagine but there is a Prohibition Party in this country. And when I say Prohibition, I mean the ban-alcohol party from the early 20th century. You might want to laugh at the idea, but the man running for president under this banner has held elected office as the leading member of that party. Most third-party candidates cannot say the same.

Reform Party USA

The Reform Party was started back in the 1990s under Ross Perot. It still exists to day and is still putting forth candidates for the presidency. This year, the sole candidate on the ticket appears to be Ken Cross.

Veterans' Party of America

There is also a party dedicated to viewing politics through the eyes of veterans. More than that, though, they also have a platform with pretty clear statements and a focus on constitutionality and border defense.

And Then There Nine. Or 16. Wait. How Many GOP Candidates Are There?

So Rick Perry dropped out of the race. It looks like bullying tactics are working pretty well for Donald Trump.

Perry was one of the earliest victims of Trump's aggression. Trump hammered down on Perry's alleged intelligence deficit, saying that the ex-governor of Texas should have to take an IQ test before being allowed to enter the GOP debate. Just this humiliating charge was enough to noticeably diminish Perry's standing in the polls.

In Rick Perry's defense, I don't see what makes him so apparently less intelligent than any other political candidate. According to this Gene Expression article from a 2011 edition of Discover magazine, Perry got Cs and Ds in his college courses back in the late 60s and early 70s.

Youths of today, granted Cs practically just for showing up at school, do not understand that a C grade was pretty respectable back before the days when everyone was expected to go to college. I suspect that a review of college grades for many great statesmen would reveal lackluster academic performances. Great men do not tend to fare well in the institutions of docility that pass for schools these days.

The saddest part of the whole debacle is that Perry gave up his job as governor of Texas early this year to run for President. Now, many candidates give up positions in order to run for another office. However, it must hurt to have the whole dream turned to shit so quickly.

If he had at least made it to the primaries, he might have felt justified in the decision to quit. Now he must be missing the security and privilege of his former position.

Nevertheless, Perry is out and the dwindling has begun. Also, the Donald has once again been provided with another headline and indirectly free publicity.

Is Donald Trump Sinking His Own Ship?

Recently, Donald Trump has tried his hardest to sabotage himself in the GOP race for the presidency. He has done this before with comments about Megyn Kelly and others but with little or no impact on his poll numbers. It remains to be seen how his latest efforts will hurt his chances or not.

Trump vs Carson

A few days ago, Ben Carson was asked to distinguish himself from Donald Trump. He responded with a remark that referenced matters of faith. He seemed to suggest that Trump's religiosity was insincere, since citing a favorite passage from the Bible would be too personal. This was not a very targeted attack and it takes a little effort to even see it as a disparaging remark at all.

That did not stop Trump from going on the attack as soon as he learned about it. He immediately referenced Carson's own faith history and shed doubt on the idea that he has been a man of faith all his life.

“All of a sudden he's becoming this man of faith," Trump snorted. The billionaire candidate also called Carson, who is renowned for neurosurgery, an "okay doctor." That is what we called damning with faint praise. Trump definitely shows here how his aggressiveness has served him in the world of business.

Carson, to his credit, heard about the dust up and apologized if it had seemed his intent to cause insult. I have not heard back on whether Trump responded in any way.

Trump vs Fiorina

"Look at that face!" Trump huffed as he spoke with a Rolling Stone interviewer and pointed to Carly Fiorina, who had just appeared on a nearby TV screen. "Would anyone vote for that?"

The cry over this one involves sexism but I think, if I may interject my own sexist viewpoint here, that this is really all about the delicacy women have with regard to their features. Had he said this about Jeb Bush, everyone would have laughed. But, as Trump immediately pointed out after letting another gaffe slip through his lips, you're not supposed to say bad things about women. You especially should not call them ugly.

The funny thing here is that all the people who are upset have probably made many a joke or laughed at many a joke about Trump's hair. But a chick's face is off limits, right?

How it Hurts

Everyone, even most republicans, think that it is funny to make a Jeb Bush joke or laugh at Lindsey Graham's attempt at the presidency. However, Carson and Fiorina belong to special groups which political correctness does not allow to be insulted in today's world: minorities and women.

I was initially surprised when I heard that Trump had gone after Carson. Carson's race generally leaves him immune to many of the most vile weapons available in a politician's arsenal. I was also curious to hear exactly how Trump had bungled this one.

But the details are quite boring. He never really insulted Carson. He made a quite probable reference to Carson's faith being a rather recent invention. Nor did he say that Carson was a lousy doctor. Plenty of people would love to be "okay doctors" in this world. It is only that he undermined the public idea that Carson was brilliant that caused Trump trouble here.

Trump also attacked a woman but this is not a first for him and it has not hurt his numbers before. Plenty of women support Trump and have publicly stated that they forgive him these faults because of other more important traits.

Does It Matter?

I think that this only looks like a major confrontation from the headlines. It is pretty obvious, after you read the first few articles about it all, that the media is trying to dig up a story here.

In the end, this is really good for Trump. I mentioned in a  previous article that the Donald's biggest enemy right now is this slow period between now and the first primary. The media continues to make headlines for him at no cost to his treasure chest.

Clear and Present Danger for Donald Trump

If you are a fan of Donald Trump, then it might be easy right now to get carried away with enthusiasm and assume that he cannot be stopped. After all, Jeb Bush is basically imploding with omega male misery and the myriad other contenders are, for the most part, swirling and spinning in the wake of Trump's speedboat.

The only real threat appears to be Ben Carson. But ask yourself, are the other candidates trying to imitate Carson to make up the difference or are they imitating Trump? GOP candidates are trying to fire up the rhetoric and appear as outspoken as the Donald now but this is a pathetic effort doomed to failure. Even the dimmest bulb in the room sees through this effort and, worse, they are going to turn off many of their more traditional supporters.

However, if you have been through a few political cycles, you can see a serious but ambiguous threat to Trump's continued popularity.

Time Destroys All Things

Trump towers someday. But maybe not in 2016!

Just think, the Iowa caucus and the New Hampshire primary are still four months away. Once those events occur, leading candidates have headlines to help carry their efforts to the next round of primaries. You can either count on winning a primary or doing better than expected to generate some free publicity and keep people interested.

But we are not in primary season. If you want to be noticed and gather support, you need to create your own stories. Now, so far Trump has had little difficulty doing this. The press has been giving him free publicity for several weeks but he was still considered a sideshow just a couple months ago. Now he has to slog through four months of quiet time.

The other candidates, even those with just a few percentage points of support, can still come back if they manage to hold on. Just like stocks usually bounce back from lows and reward investors who hold on to them, candidates can recover when emotional support for a frontrunner fades away as time passes and nothing new happens. That support has to go somewhere and it can trickle down to these stragglers and make some headlines for them.

I am not saying that Trump cannot do it, only that he has a different game ahead of him now. He has garnered a lot of press and support for being outspoken. Over four months, that will get old. He will probably have to begin producing policies and plans and compete with these others in their own games.

Clinging to a Bush

Jeb Bush has a lot of money. He can hold on. He might begin to look very good to people who tire of Trump's bluster and seek comfort in traditional candidates.  Other GOP candidates may share the same hope. Ben Carson can hope to appear as the safe and sensible alternative to "the crazies," as John McCain referred to the earliest supporters of Trump over a month ago.

Donald Trump Pledges to Stay in the GOP

I did not think that he would do it but apparently Donald Trump has pledged to support the GOP even in he loses the nomination. Given his stubborn and maverick style, I thought that he would refuse to do so and end up running as an independent if he could not pull off the nomination by next summer. Having thought it over for a couple of days, I think I can see a few good reasons why he would do so.

• He cannot get on the ballot in some states without such a pledge. I think that this is a total bullshit move on part of the GOP but apparently some primaries, such as South Carolina, operate under such rules.
• He is increasingly confident that he will, in fact, be the nominee and refusing the pledge accomplishes nothing.
• Being the Donald, he has no intention of honoring the pledge if it works against him.

There is good reason for Donald Trump to sign it now that the latest poll shows him beating Clinton in a head-to-head election. The Trump avalanche in the GOP appears to be increasingly inevitable.

Why Is Hillary Clinton Struggling to Lead in the Polls?

The great surprise of this election cycle is the trouble that Hillary Clinton has had in clinching the nomination. I realize that the primaries are still far away but I assumed that by now she would dominate the polls and have an easy ride to Iowa and New Hampshire ahead of her.

As if the continued neck-and-neck business with Bernie Sanders was not enough to mystify me, Joe Biden is inexplicably pondering entry into the race and being received favorably by many Democrats. At least with the republicans, I understand why their nomination process is a mess, The Dems have completely mystified me this year. I thought this was a done deal.

How Can Bernie Sanders Have Any Appeal Today?

Bernie Sanders is running for the Democratic nomination but he is technically an independent. In fact, he describes himself as a socialist but is not apparently a member of the Socialist Party USA (which is a sad little affair with something like one or two thousand members).

Now, the last unabashed socialist to run for president several decades ago got a few thousand total popular votes nationwide. Simply put, it has always been impossible for open socialists to win elections in this country. Even the most liberal locales have been allergic to this form of left-wing politics. Certainly, democrats have been justifiably accused of adhering to specific socialist ideas but their politics have always been to the right of major European socialist parties. In fact, liberal democrats in America are often more right wing than some conservative parties in Europe but that is a topic for another time.

So how has Sanders stayed competitive this time around? He is polling only around 20-30 percent support in head-to-head polls against the other democrats but that is far more than any of the others running against Hillary Clinton. Names like Webb and O'Malley get anywhere from 0% to 2% in such polls. I suspect he gets support for a few reasons:

• He is from Vermont and is popular with New Englanders. His higher numbers in New Hampshire (there he nearly equals Clinton with 40% of the vote) are probably due to this factor and they help to give him credibility in other polled locales. 
• People are really fed up with the way that global capitalism has destroyed their hopes. In a related article on my finance blog, I discussed how the economics of this country have been betraying the working class for decades. Maybe they are ready for extreme solutions to their extreme problems. I tend to think that Donald Trump is getting a lot of support on the other end of the political spectrum for the same reasons.
• Perhaps people just don't like Hillary Clinton enough to dismiss her competition so quickly.

Is Hillary Her Own Worst Enemy?

Maybe the explanation is much more simple than I let on. When I saw how even the mention of a run by Joe Biden was enough to upset Clinton's already rocking boat, I was surprised at how easily disturbed the race was on the Democratic side, Perhaps democrats are more fed up with Clinton than it appears.

It could be that the email scandal and Benghazi do resonate with liberal voters. Or maybe people are just sick of the Clintons and want to move on. Of course, it could also be a more prosaic answer. People might just not be impressed with the content of her political proposals. Wouldn't that be pleasantly traditional?

Who Is Ben Carson?

Donald Trump is not the only unlikely contender for the Republican Presidential nomination this year. Many Washington insiders have tried to make the traditional and now-to-be-expected poses as outsiders this year, but more than one candidate appears to be genuinely fresh to the American election spectacle. Among these candidates is Ben Carson.

Ben Carson's Background

Ben Carson's unusual background as a neurosurgeon, now retired, is actually of great assistance to him in the public eye. Even in an age increasingly burdened by health care regulations and outrageous costs, doctors still retain a noble character in public opinion. The moderate amount of fame acquired by Dr. Carson during his career (he is known for performing the first successful separation of twins conjoined at the head in 1987) also lends him an air of daring intelligence and skill.

Ben Carson's Politics

Carson has done much more in life outside of doctoring. He had taught at the University level and written several books. However, this is his first foray into politics. He gave a moving and much-remembered speech at the 2013 National Prayer breakfast.

When the political question was put to him in the wake of sudden public recognition, Carson denied being a member of either major political party in the US. However, in late 2014, he officially joined the GOP. He was quickly noted for his quiet, cerebral approach to many questions.

His views are staunchly conservative in many ways. He is adamantly against abortion and the abortion industry. He is a practicing Christian, raised in the Seventh-Day Adventist faith but attending a variety of churches of different Protestant denominations.He has stated publicly that marriage is only between a man and a woman. Other views of his are generally within the conservative boundaries.


The Elephant in the Room Ain't Pink

While virtually no one in this PC age is willing to discuss the matter, Carson's race provides him with unique advantages and disadvantages.

The good doctor is an African-American republican and that makes him stand out from the rest of the pack. Like Jeb Bush, he is well-prepared to counter and/or defuse the race car that Democrats can be otherwise expected to play in the General Election. He is not an old, white man who can be so easily insinuated to be trying to drag the country "back into the Stone Age." While I would not expect the Democrats to give him a pass when it comes down to fighting for power in the big battle next summer and fall, nevertheless they will feel compelled to pull their punches due to the color of his skin.

However, race may also impede his rise to the nomination. I am not a liberal and I do not leap to accuse Republicans of racism. However, I do not think that any thoughtful person can deny that the Republican party is much more of a white man's party than it is anything else. The simple fact is that Carson does not look like most of the people that he needs to vote for him. This is a barrier, pure and simple.

This very same barrier has been breached in recent history, though, with the nomination and subsequent election of Barack Obama. Dr. Carson has recently tied Donald Trump in republican polls so the outlook is improving for his chances at ultimate victory.

What's Wrong with Jeb Bush?

Exactly what is wrong with Jeb Bush? He is doing pretty poorly against two outsiders yet he could easily have been seen as the crown prince of the GOP given his heritage and background. The answer to the question depends on which party opines on the matter. The GOP answer is really the most important right now but it is always useful to see infighting through an outsider's eyes.

Democrats See Jeb Bush and Think...

Liberal boogeymen - Woohoo! Let's start a war and revoke abortion rights!

Without question, most libs look at Jeb and see George W. Whether that identification is justified or not is neither here nor there. Even if, after thinking about it for a while, they can begin to see differences, it does not matter. Liberals are allergic to GW Bush like they had nut allergies and he was a Payday bar. Jeb may have less nuts but he is still toxic death to them.

And it doesn't help Jeb that he has done things such as cross the racial boundary with his wife or learned Spanish. That doesn't make them like him any more. Jeb has fallen for the liberal fallacy that conciliating people makes them more likely to like you. This is a classic beta male mistake.

Conciliating people actually makes them more likely to despise you. The only way to win liberals' respect is to be tough with them. This is why Trump will end up garnering much more respect from his enemies if he wins the nomination. Libs are definitely not scared of Jeb. That's his real problem.

Republicans See Jeb and Think...

Where's the Beav?

I do not want to malign all conservatives but the simple fact is that many of them are not ready for this picture.

It's not a matter necessarily of racism. I do not like the way that people now whip out the racist accusation every time someone isn't comfortable with the immediate liquification of all races into one mildly brown guy with slightly slanted eyes. I have fathered a multiracial family but I do not expect everyone to want to follow in my footsteps. I like the fact that there are Duggar families sharing the country with me. Call me open-minded.

Nevertheless, I am sure that a significant segment of the population backing Trump is just plain uncomfortable when they look at this picture. Jeb Bush has strayed. Possibly worse, he even converted to Catholicism.

Of course, I am sure that the committee handling Jeb's entire life in order to lead him to the presidency had this figured out. They probably weren't planning on such a tough fight from the extreme right wing of the party. Didn't we already cow these people? Aren't they supposed to be distracted by professional wrestling? What went wrong?

The planners were probably thinking about the general election when Jeb could present a soft, conservative identity that would be immune to the racist card that Obama played, though subtly, on McCain. Libs won't be able to suggest that this is just an old, white guy with no clue about race. Up against any of the present Dem contenders, he would appear positively cosmopolitan.

The republicans uniting under the Trump banner also see weakness in Jeb. Trump said on a TV interview that Jeb is low-energy but immediately said that this is OK. But he doesn't really think that this is okay and neither do his followers. They want a man in charge and Jeb is too much the affable office manager. They prefer a hard-charging tycoon.

The biggest thing wrong with Jeb Bush is his timing. He should have run in 2000 and he should have run in 2012. Without Trump in this race, I think that the race would have been really to see who would be his running mate. Trump has opened it up so much that Ben Carson is vying for first place in some polls.

That is why I like Trump more than anything. He has kicked in the door and let in some fresh air. Too bad for Jeb Bush that the sudden breeze upset his paperwork.

Cultural Issues: A Broad Outline

For a long time, culture has been the elephant in the room during American political discussions. That is, whenever actual political discussions have been held. I feel sorry for the younger generation today because they seem to have grown up in a period much more sharply divided than I remember. There does not seem to be any room for dissent anymore and therefore political discussion has largely been replaced by shouting matches or, to avoid the shouting match, an unspoken taboo has been attached to all political issues at social gatherings.

Cultural may not be the appropriate word for the substance of this division but it may have to suffice. The matter is simply that people argue about surface political issues when, actually, there are geographic fault lines dividing them which no one is addressing.

Thinking about this division, I initially determined that it goes all the way back to the Roe v Wade decision of 1973. After all, if one side of the discussion thinks that they are discussing murder and the other side doesn't, each is attaching a very distinct level of importance to the topic. Anyone who has been married knows how much damage can occur when one half of the couple does not take a disputed issue as seriously as the other.

Perhaps, though, this issue goes much farther back. I thought, for some time, that there was good reason to believe that the matter had its origin in the Civil War. Now, I am thinking that perhaps we are reaping what we sowed in the American Revolution.

I will speculate more about that issue in later articles. For now, it should be enough to outline the primary matters which are causing such turmoil in today's political forums.

Religion

Has the Sun set on American religion?

Religion has always divided America to some extent. Today, the source of the division is unusual in that having a religion or adhering to one makes you stand out against the general American background in many places.

Before World War II, the US was a staunchly Protestant country. While Catholics had been slowly gaining popular acceptance since the US Civil War (in which thousands of Irish and other immigrants fought for the North), it was really the Second World War which erased some of the cultural division.

During the war, men of all faiths found themselves fighting side by side. They had access to one another's pastors when it was necessary to consult about spiritual matters. After the war, these men went to work in factories together, lived in the suburbs together and so on. There was definitely a sentiment abroad that one should attend the church of his choice so long as you went to church.

It would be foolish to pretend that atheism is entirely new to the US culture. There have been atheist s since the beginning and Jefferson's Bible is certainly proof that the Founding Fathers had different ideas about faith than many continue to think.

However, since the 1960s, the impulse toward atheism has grown. Whereas one once had to be convinced to become an atheist, now one must be convinced to believe in spiritual matters. The default spiritual mindset has now become one of disregard for religion rather than disbelief.

There is no question that this movement away from the ancestral faiths of previous generations has made a huge impact on politics. It is what we are really talking about when we talk about some of the major issues in front of the populace today.

Sexuality

What is really going on in our minds when we talk politics.

The sexuality issue is really almost a sub-category of the religion issue. While acceptance of gay people has grown in the last few decades, the fact of the matter remains that many Americans are just not comfortable with the thought. Furthermore, a growing number of people may have voted for gay marriage and related issues but are increasingly turned off by the activism of many gay groups.

In addition, due to the way that the Internet interface allows people to escape immediate public rebuke or even violence for expressing unpopular opinions, you see many people coming out and declaring their open disgust with homosexuals and homosexuality. I think that a lot of revulsion was apparently dormant during previous decades when communications technology was less developed. People are now able to express their opinions on these matters in public rather than simply stating them at the dinner table.

I am not simply saying that sexuality issues affect how people vote on topics such as gay marriage. I am saying that this matter and others are driving how people vote on a spectrum of issues. People are conflating apparently distinct issues with this one. Your view on gay marriage can probably tell me a lot about your view on the environment, foreign policy, etc.

Race

Each of us feels something different looking at this picture.

As I was growing up in the 1970s and 1980s. there was definitely the perceptible sentiment that we were achieving racial equality and that, soon, race would not matter. That dream never really came true. Seven years after electing the first black POTUS, it is almost as if we have decided to review the last 150 years of racial issues and legal decisions with a critical eye.

Certainly, the Internet has made it easier for people with less accepting views on race to express themselves safely. Furthermore, there seems to be a growing and vocal concern that cultural divisions between blacks and whites may be more real than was previously thought. No one can deny that crime rates are distinctly higher among black populations and the excuse of systemic oppression or the legacy of slavery is getting harder for many people to accept.

Again, an opinion on this issue often tells you a lot about the holder of that opinion. You would have to dig deep to find someone willing to say that they do not think that the races are equal these days. But it is not so hard to find someone that thinks that the people in Ferguson are self-destructive thugs or that Trayvon Martin got what he had coming.

Very recent events have stirred the pot even more. While the media glosses over the racial identity of the latest murders related in the press, at the grassroots level people are upset. The Virginia reporter shooting just last week caused an eruption of articles and comments about race. The vitriol unleashed on comment boards beneath news articles online should be enough to disturb anyone.

Other Issues

There are many other issues which the reader could easily associate with these as far as their ability to divide the public into warring factions. Climate change is another issue. Again, your view on climate change is likely to be a guide to your other opinions on issues such as gay marriage, abortion, gun control, the Ferguson riots and so on.

While the media circus ramps up the excitement about the upcoming election, it is important to remember that there is much more than politics at stake here. This is not just about social security or the war on terror. There are issues here at home which Americans have still not decided, though history books may make it seem that such issues were resolved decades ago.