Why Is Hillary Clinton Struggling to Lead in the Polls?

The great surprise of this election cycle is the trouble that Hillary Clinton has had in clinching the nomination. I realize that the primaries are still far away but I assumed that by now she would dominate the polls and have an easy ride to Iowa and New Hampshire ahead of her.

As if the continued neck-and-neck business with Bernie Sanders was not enough to mystify me, Joe Biden is inexplicably pondering entry into the race and being received favorably by many Democrats. At least with the republicans, I understand why their nomination process is a mess, The Dems have completely mystified me this year. I thought this was a done deal.

How Can Bernie Sanders Have Any Appeal Today?

Bernie Sanders is running for the Democratic nomination but he is technically an independent. In fact, he describes himself as a socialist but is not apparently a member of the Socialist Party USA (which is a sad little affair with something like one or two thousand members).

Now, the last unabashed socialist to run for president several decades ago got a few thousand total popular votes nationwide. Simply put, it has always been impossible for open socialists to win elections in this country. Even the most liberal locales have been allergic to this form of left-wing politics. Certainly, democrats have been justifiably accused of adhering to specific socialist ideas but their politics have always been to the right of major European socialist parties. In fact, liberal democrats in America are often more right wing than some conservative parties in Europe but that is a topic for another time.

So how has Sanders stayed competitive this time around? He is polling only around 20-30 percent support in head-to-head polls against the other democrats but that is far more than any of the others running against Hillary Clinton. Names like Webb and O'Malley get anywhere from 0% to 2% in such polls. I suspect he gets support for a few reasons:

• He is from Vermont and is popular with New Englanders. His higher numbers in New Hampshire (there he nearly equals Clinton with 40% of the vote) are probably due to this factor and they help to give him credibility in other polled locales. 
• People are really fed up with the way that global capitalism has destroyed their hopes. In a related article on my finance blog, I discussed how the economics of this country have been betraying the working class for decades. Maybe they are ready for extreme solutions to their extreme problems. I tend to think that Donald Trump is getting a lot of support on the other end of the political spectrum for the same reasons.
• Perhaps people just don't like Hillary Clinton enough to dismiss her competition so quickly.

Is Hillary Her Own Worst Enemy?

Maybe the explanation is much more simple than I let on. When I saw how even the mention of a run by Joe Biden was enough to upset Clinton's already rocking boat, I was surprised at how easily disturbed the race was on the Democratic side, Perhaps democrats are more fed up with Clinton than it appears.

It could be that the email scandal and Benghazi do resonate with liberal voters. Or maybe people are just sick of the Clintons and want to move on. Of course, it could also be a more prosaic answer. People might just not be impressed with the content of her political proposals. Wouldn't that be pleasantly traditional?

Who Is Ben Carson?

Donald Trump is not the only unlikely contender for the Republican Presidential nomination this year. Many Washington insiders have tried to make the traditional and now-to-be-expected poses as outsiders this year, but more than one candidate appears to be genuinely fresh to the American election spectacle. Among these candidates is Ben Carson.

Ben Carson's Background

Ben Carson's unusual background as a neurosurgeon, now retired, is actually of great assistance to him in the public eye. Even in an age increasingly burdened by health care regulations and outrageous costs, doctors still retain a noble character in public opinion. The moderate amount of fame acquired by Dr. Carson during his career (he is known for performing the first successful separation of twins conjoined at the head in 1987) also lends him an air of daring intelligence and skill.

Ben Carson's Politics

Carson has done much more in life outside of doctoring. He had taught at the University level and written several books. However, this is his first foray into politics. He gave a moving and much-remembered speech at the 2013 National Prayer breakfast.

When the political question was put to him in the wake of sudden public recognition, Carson denied being a member of either major political party in the US. However, in late 2014, he officially joined the GOP. He was quickly noted for his quiet, cerebral approach to many questions.

His views are staunchly conservative in many ways. He is adamantly against abortion and the abortion industry. He is a practicing Christian, raised in the Seventh-Day Adventist faith but attending a variety of churches of different Protestant denominations.He has stated publicly that marriage is only between a man and a woman. Other views of his are generally within the conservative boundaries.


The Elephant in the Room Ain't Pink

While virtually no one in this PC age is willing to discuss the matter, Carson's race provides him with unique advantages and disadvantages.

The good doctor is an African-American republican and that makes him stand out from the rest of the pack. Like Jeb Bush, he is well-prepared to counter and/or defuse the race car that Democrats can be otherwise expected to play in the General Election. He is not an old, white man who can be so easily insinuated to be trying to drag the country "back into the Stone Age." While I would not expect the Democrats to give him a pass when it comes down to fighting for power in the big battle next summer and fall, nevertheless they will feel compelled to pull their punches due to the color of his skin.

However, race may also impede his rise to the nomination. I am not a liberal and I do not leap to accuse Republicans of racism. However, I do not think that any thoughtful person can deny that the Republican party is much more of a white man's party than it is anything else. The simple fact is that Carson does not look like most of the people that he needs to vote for him. This is a barrier, pure and simple.

This very same barrier has been breached in recent history, though, with the nomination and subsequent election of Barack Obama. Dr. Carson has recently tied Donald Trump in republican polls so the outlook is improving for his chances at ultimate victory.

What's Wrong with Jeb Bush?

Exactly what is wrong with Jeb Bush? He is doing pretty poorly against two outsiders yet he could easily have been seen as the crown prince of the GOP given his heritage and background. The answer to the question depends on which party opines on the matter. The GOP answer is really the most important right now but it is always useful to see infighting through an outsider's eyes.

Democrats See Jeb Bush and Think...

Liberal boogeymen - Woohoo! Let's start a war and revoke abortion rights!

Without question, most libs look at Jeb and see George W. Whether that identification is justified or not is neither here nor there. Even if, after thinking about it for a while, they can begin to see differences, it does not matter. Liberals are allergic to GW Bush like they had nut allergies and he was a Payday bar. Jeb may have less nuts but he is still toxic death to them.

And it doesn't help Jeb that he has done things such as cross the racial boundary with his wife or learned Spanish. That doesn't make them like him any more. Jeb has fallen for the liberal fallacy that conciliating people makes them more likely to like you. This is a classic beta male mistake.

Conciliating people actually makes them more likely to despise you. The only way to win liberals' respect is to be tough with them. This is why Trump will end up garnering much more respect from his enemies if he wins the nomination. Libs are definitely not scared of Jeb. That's his real problem.

Republicans See Jeb and Think...

Where's the Beav?

I do not want to malign all conservatives but the simple fact is that many of them are not ready for this picture.

It's not a matter necessarily of racism. I do not like the way that people now whip out the racist accusation every time someone isn't comfortable with the immediate liquification of all races into one mildly brown guy with slightly slanted eyes. I have fathered a multiracial family but I do not expect everyone to want to follow in my footsteps. I like the fact that there are Duggar families sharing the country with me. Call me open-minded.

Nevertheless, I am sure that a significant segment of the population backing Trump is just plain uncomfortable when they look at this picture. Jeb Bush has strayed. Possibly worse, he even converted to Catholicism.

Of course, I am sure that the committee handling Jeb's entire life in order to lead him to the presidency had this figured out. They probably weren't planning on such a tough fight from the extreme right wing of the party. Didn't we already cow these people? Aren't they supposed to be distracted by professional wrestling? What went wrong?

The planners were probably thinking about the general election when Jeb could present a soft, conservative identity that would be immune to the racist card that Obama played, though subtly, on McCain. Libs won't be able to suggest that this is just an old, white guy with no clue about race. Up against any of the present Dem contenders, he would appear positively cosmopolitan.

The republicans uniting under the Trump banner also see weakness in Jeb. Trump said on a TV interview that Jeb is low-energy but immediately said that this is OK. But he doesn't really think that this is okay and neither do his followers. They want a man in charge and Jeb is too much the affable office manager. They prefer a hard-charging tycoon.

The biggest thing wrong with Jeb Bush is his timing. He should have run in 2000 and he should have run in 2012. Without Trump in this race, I think that the race would have been really to see who would be his running mate. Trump has opened it up so much that Ben Carson is vying for first place in some polls.

That is why I like Trump more than anything. He has kicked in the door and let in some fresh air. Too bad for Jeb Bush that the sudden breeze upset his paperwork.

Cultural Issues: A Broad Outline

For a long time, culture has been the elephant in the room during American political discussions. That is, whenever actual political discussions have been held. I feel sorry for the younger generation today because they seem to have grown up in a period much more sharply divided than I remember. There does not seem to be any room for dissent anymore and therefore political discussion has largely been replaced by shouting matches or, to avoid the shouting match, an unspoken taboo has been attached to all political issues at social gatherings.

Cultural may not be the appropriate word for the substance of this division but it may have to suffice. The matter is simply that people argue about surface political issues when, actually, there are geographic fault lines dividing them which no one is addressing.

Thinking about this division, I initially determined that it goes all the way back to the Roe v Wade decision of 1973. After all, if one side of the discussion thinks that they are discussing murder and the other side doesn't, each is attaching a very distinct level of importance to the topic. Anyone who has been married knows how much damage can occur when one half of the couple does not take a disputed issue as seriously as the other.

Perhaps, though, this issue goes much farther back. I thought, for some time, that there was good reason to believe that the matter had its origin in the Civil War. Now, I am thinking that perhaps we are reaping what we sowed in the American Revolution.

I will speculate more about that issue in later articles. For now, it should be enough to outline the primary matters which are causing such turmoil in today's political forums.

Religion

Has the Sun set on American religion?

Religion has always divided America to some extent. Today, the source of the division is unusual in that having a religion or adhering to one makes you stand out against the general American background in many places.

Before World War II, the US was a staunchly Protestant country. While Catholics had been slowly gaining popular acceptance since the US Civil War (in which thousands of Irish and other immigrants fought for the North), it was really the Second World War which erased some of the cultural division.

During the war, men of all faiths found themselves fighting side by side. They had access to one another's pastors when it was necessary to consult about spiritual matters. After the war, these men went to work in factories together, lived in the suburbs together and so on. There was definitely a sentiment abroad that one should attend the church of his choice so long as you went to church.

It would be foolish to pretend that atheism is entirely new to the US culture. There have been atheist s since the beginning and Jefferson's Bible is certainly proof that the Founding Fathers had different ideas about faith than many continue to think.

However, since the 1960s, the impulse toward atheism has grown. Whereas one once had to be convinced to become an atheist, now one must be convinced to believe in spiritual matters. The default spiritual mindset has now become one of disregard for religion rather than disbelief.

There is no question that this movement away from the ancestral faiths of previous generations has made a huge impact on politics. It is what we are really talking about when we talk about some of the major issues in front of the populace today.

Sexuality

What is really going on in our minds when we talk politics.

The sexuality issue is really almost a sub-category of the religion issue. While acceptance of gay people has grown in the last few decades, the fact of the matter remains that many Americans are just not comfortable with the thought. Furthermore, a growing number of people may have voted for gay marriage and related issues but are increasingly turned off by the activism of many gay groups.

In addition, due to the way that the Internet interface allows people to escape immediate public rebuke or even violence for expressing unpopular opinions, you see many people coming out and declaring their open disgust with homosexuals and homosexuality. I think that a lot of revulsion was apparently dormant during previous decades when communications technology was less developed. People are now able to express their opinions on these matters in public rather than simply stating them at the dinner table.

I am not simply saying that sexuality issues affect how people vote on topics such as gay marriage. I am saying that this matter and others are driving how people vote on a spectrum of issues. People are conflating apparently distinct issues with this one. Your view on gay marriage can probably tell me a lot about your view on the environment, foreign policy, etc.

Race

Each of us feels something different looking at this picture.

As I was growing up in the 1970s and 1980s. there was definitely the perceptible sentiment that we were achieving racial equality and that, soon, race would not matter. That dream never really came true. Seven years after electing the first black POTUS, it is almost as if we have decided to review the last 150 years of racial issues and legal decisions with a critical eye.

Certainly, the Internet has made it easier for people with less accepting views on race to express themselves safely. Furthermore, there seems to be a growing and vocal concern that cultural divisions between blacks and whites may be more real than was previously thought. No one can deny that crime rates are distinctly higher among black populations and the excuse of systemic oppression or the legacy of slavery is getting harder for many people to accept.

Again, an opinion on this issue often tells you a lot about the holder of that opinion. You would have to dig deep to find someone willing to say that they do not think that the races are equal these days. But it is not so hard to find someone that thinks that the people in Ferguson are self-destructive thugs or that Trayvon Martin got what he had coming.

Very recent events have stirred the pot even more. While the media glosses over the racial identity of the latest murders related in the press, at the grassroots level people are upset. The Virginia reporter shooting just last week caused an eruption of articles and comments about race. The vitriol unleashed on comment boards beneath news articles online should be enough to disturb anyone.

Other Issues

There are many other issues which the reader could easily associate with these as far as their ability to divide the public into warring factions. Climate change is another issue. Again, your view on climate change is likely to be a guide to your other opinions on issues such as gay marriage, abortion, gun control, the Ferguson riots and so on.

While the media circus ramps up the excitement about the upcoming election, it is important to remember that there is much more than politics at stake here. This is not just about social security or the war on terror. There are issues here at home which Americans have still not decided, though history books may make it seem that such issues were resolved decades ago.

The Competition: Democrats

The democratic field is far less expansive than the republican. However, it has generated its own brand of excitement due to the recent rumors surrounding the possible entrance of Vice President Joe Biden into the race.

Front-Runner

Hillary Clinton has been aiming this shot for a long time. She won election to the US Senate in 2000 and served until the presidential election of 2008. She missed her opportunity that year when so many people considered her a shoe-in.  Somehow, Barack Obama beat the Clinton machine and left her begging for leftovers. She got Secretary of State but left her post in 2013, presumably to give herself some distance from the Obama administration and to prepare for this campaign.

Clinton has been hampered primarily by the Benghazi issue and the cloud surrounding her private Internet server while overseeing the State Department. Only recently has her shot at the nomination been seriously challenged by the potential entry of Joe Biden.

The Old-School Socialist

Bernie Sanders does not mind being called a socialist. He adheres to a leftist, trade-union form of political philosophy that would have made him an anachronistic candidate even decades ago. This approach to politics, long honored in Europe, is simply out-of-place in the US but his appeal to the poor and the under-employed is nevertheless real. Until now, his candidacy has only really been a sideshow.


King of the Gaffe

I remember Joseph Biden running for the 1988 presidential nomination of the democratic party. He and many others lost to Michael Dukakis. Biden tried again in 2008 and was washed out of the running early. In the end, Obama put him on the ticket in a surprising choice. Biden is another relic of 20th century American politics: part of the Irish-Catholic wing that guided the democrats during much of the Cold War.

Since reaching the office of Vice President, Biden has mostly been known for his gaffes. In fact, he made a few awful ones during his own campaign for the nomination. He made the awkward comment that Obama was an articulate, clean black guy.

Somehow, somebody thought it would be a good idea for him to run for the Presidency again. I am not a Clinton fan but I don't see how this is a good idea for the party. It just seems likely to undermine their strongest candidate. Perhaps, though, TPTB don't want her to win.

The Biden candidacy is not yet a fact but it seems to be gaining strength. It seems likely to be the only thing standing in Clinton's way. Without that distraction, Clinton's real opponent is already Donald Trump for as long as he retains the lead in republican polls.